Mafia Round 3.5

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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Wed Oct 25, 2017 8:49 pm

Well, we have too options fundamentally: lynch or don't lynch.

Going on the hypothetical as you stated it where we have NO information, my analyses of each option are, in brief, as follows:

Lynch: If we lynch with NO information, then we are lynching randomly. As such, that puts us at a 1/3 chance of lynching scum (there are 6 of us, 2 are scum). If we get the unlucky 2 out of 3, then, depending on what the setup is, we lose, as with the nightkill (which is all but guaranteed given the early death of the Doctor, unless we have a rollblocker) that would put the game with 2 town and 2 scum, making a lynch impossible. Only a vig could save us at that point, as a lucky vigging in the night phase would instead put it at 2 town and 1 scum. However, that relies on two different unknowns: that we have a vig, and that the vig hits on the 50:50 shot (assuming, once again, no information). In the lynch option, a mislynch could not be remedied by an investigative role, but in the 1/3 chance of a proper lynch, an investigative role could get us more information in the night phase for use the next day.

No lynch: A no-lynch, assuming we don't have a vig or the vig doesn't act, puts us at 3 town and 2 scum tomorrow after the nightkill. This is not unwinnable, as it doesn't doom us the way a mislynch would, but it is quite dire. The main advantages of this option are that it is guaranteed to get us to the next day with a game that is still winnable, and also gives any investigative role(s) a chance to get us more information.

From my above analyses, I think that if we really believe that, as in your hypothetical, we have NO information right now, we should opt for a nolynch. I don't like to gamble on >50% odds when the stakes involve losing. I'm not convinced at all that we have a vig. I'd even call it unlikely at this point.

I also don't think that we have NO information, which adjusts the odds a bit. Regardless, I think we need more information, and as such, more discussion. So please, everyone: discuss.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:03 pm

Alright, this game's been slow enough, so I'll just ask random questions.

Question 1) What does everyone think about possible scum teams? My thoughts...

-GM and Nihil: I'm still unconvinced that Nihil's scum, but hypothetically if GM and Nihil are both scum then firstly, give Hans a fuckin' gold star. Secondly, GM's vote on Nihil could easily be explained as trying to distance themselves, particularly since Nihil hasn't been going after GM. A pseudo sacrificial play, in a way, since Hans was most suspicious of Nihil.

-GM and L9O: If these two are scum, then them going after Nihil would be the best option for them. Nihil was heavily suspected by Hans, so building upon and forming an early bandwagon would be an easy way to convince others to fall for a mislynch.

-Nihil and L9O: Nihil and L9O have been going after each other pretty aggressively, but the fact that L9O hasn't voted for Nihil could be a sign of this being a play at distancing. Rather aggressive distancing, mind you...

-Mack and THR: Going to say this outright, I think this is the ONLY pairing that makes sense if either of them are scum. Lurking is scummy, and if they were partnered with a more experienced player, they'd tell them to knock that shit off about half-way through day one. Unless, of course, either of them have just been refusing to listen to their scum partner.

Question 2) GM, what do you think of Nihil's explanation to the "statistically more likely to lynch" thing you had a problem with?

Question 3) Where's THR, and is he still a part of the game? That's more a question to Arc and anyone that knows him...
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:10 pm

I would just like to post briefly to state that, in my analysis, I made a small mistake.

In the event that we do lynch today, we mislynch, and we do have a vig, the vig has a 2/3 chance of hitting scum, not a 50:50 shot. I forgot to take into account that a hypothetical vig would obviously not be a target of said hypothetical vig.

I don't think this really changes the analysis much, but yeah, figured I should correct myself.

I'll post my response to Otaku's inquiry either later tonight or tomorrow.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:13 pm

Hi, it's me again. I just want to correct my correction, and say that I was right the first time, but for the wrong reasons.

Given that the vig kill and the scum kill would be happening independent of knowledge of the other, the vig would indeed have a 50:50 shot. There would also be a 1/8 chance that the vig would attempt to 1/12 chance that the vig and the scum would target the same person, leaving the game with the 2 town and 2 scum alive as if there had been no vig.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:24 pm

...okay, one last time. In my correction to my correction, I seem to have had a stroke in the last paragraph. The proper chance of the vig and scum sharing a target is 1/12 (1/3*1/4). I have no idea what was happening in that sentence.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:36 pm

My current thoughts on the game are that it's damn near another abortion. If THR comes back then great, but we still haven't had nearly enough time to discuss things and make an educated decision. If he doesn't come back and was town then the game is unwinnable for the town now as there aren't enough votes to lynch either of the scum. They won't be bussing each other when the game is literally over by virtue of the absent vote. So if this farce is to continue then we have to play THR as scum, as otherwise the game has already ended.

Vote to lynch: THR
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Thu Oct 26, 2017 8:44 pm

Nihil wrote:...okay, one last time. In my correction to my correction, I seem to have had a stroke in the last paragraph. The proper chance of the vig and scum sharing a target is 1/12 (1/3*1/4). I have no idea what was happening in that sentence.

Because I'll never miss an opportunity to correct mathematical errors, if there is a vig the chance of he and the mafia sharing a target is actually 1 in 6. The important part of the mafia's target is that it isn't the vig as we can safely assume he won't target himself. So the mafia has a 2/3 chance of hitting a town who isn't the vig. The vig of course could target any of the other four when operating purely on chance, so the 1/4 chance for him is correct. Multiplying those together gives a total chance of 1/6.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Fri Oct 27, 2017 10:22 am

Green Machine is correct and his math is more elegant than mine was.

What I ended up doing was calculating the odds that any given non-vig town would be the target of both the scum and the vig. I forgot at the end to multiply this by the number of non-vig town: 2. Which would have yielded the correct probability of 1/6.

I'm gonna make sure in the future to always double-triple-quadruple check my math before I post, so as to prevent future deluges like this.

Overall, I do agree that if THR doesn't come back, we have no choice but to treat him as scum, as if he isn't scum the game is made unwinnable by his absence anyway. However, I'm not going to vote for him now, as that would put him in hammer range, and so I'll wait for him to come back or for the deadline to loom.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Sat Oct 28, 2017 3:31 pm

The deadline is beginning to look very loomy.

Unfortunately, plans tonight means I can't be on waiting until the deadline to do things. As such:

Vote to Lynch: THR
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Like9Orphans on Sat Oct 28, 2017 5:12 pm

Sure, no matter what happens something has got to change. I don't particularly care at this point. I'm unfortunately probably in a very similar position to THR in terms of free time. Work is putting a damper on things and the free time I have is currently utilized towards bettering the sitrep for myself.

Vote to lynch: THR
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:19 pm

Well, I guess that settles it.

Vote to lynch: THR
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Arc on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:33 pm

THR Vanilla Town was lynched

With no protective roles left, the Scum team can kill indiscriminately, Otaku1889 and Mack Win.

I apologize to the group, I was searching for a replacement for THR for a bit, and couldn't find one. If there wasn't a lynch today, I had a backup plan, but unfortunately that wasn't what had happened.

I'm sorry to the group that this game's end was so terrible, I hope that if we get the motivation to try again, it can turn out better, but my stomach has turned against it atm.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Hans Gruber on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:39 pm

THE DEAD LIVE

AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Arc on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:40 pm

You don't deserve to live, kill the doc, suspect the cop, and bus a town.

Razz
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Hans Gruber on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:47 pm

Meh. I'm not counting this game as a loss, no matter how badly I may have performed.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:49 pm

Hahaha, Skyrim belongs to the Mafia now! Suck it.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:51 pm

Not that we had to actually do anything... We just watched as you ate each other alive. It was most fun. Until it got sad.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Hans Gruber on Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:56 pm

I will offer the scum team congratulations for their victory, and to Otaku for improving his play substantially since game 2. That said, my statement in the signup thread was, predictably, proven wrong, and I think this may have been the worst game of Mafia I've ever seen, with its only saving grace being that it didn't take up much time. Which actually takes it out of contention, because for all its faults, at least I didn't waste five months of my life on this game. So, second worst.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:26 pm

I'm not counting this as a game at all. I like the idea of Mafia, but the fact that people keep leaving when they aren't dead is preventing us from completing any real games. Round one was pretty close to an actual game; a scum hammered himself because he didn't want to play anymore rather than out of any strategy, but things pretty much went normally. Round two saw two players leave but then get replaced, which was almost okay except apparently one of the replacements didn't really want to play - so that game almost died but was revived with a touch of brain damage. Both attempts at round three had players leave who were never replaced, and neither can be considered to resemble an actual game.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Arc on Sat Oct 28, 2017 7:44 pm

I will say though, Otaku played a marvelous game here, I don't think there was a chance he would have been lynched.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Ghosty on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:14 pm

I am interested in running the next game of Mafia, but I'm considering the idea that maybe we should wait, in case some people are getting tired of the game. That being said, I don't really think it's an issue of enthusiasm- if people are getting tired of anything, it's probably not getting to play the game "properly" rather than the game itself. So I don't know if waiting for a bit would help anything.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:22 pm

As much as I'd like to play a new game as soon as possible, a breather may do us some good. At the very least we should grab a few more people for the next game.

Also, thanks for the compliments! Not entirely sure what I did right, but hey accidental progress is still progress.

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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Hans Gruber on Sat Oct 28, 2017 8:51 pm

I think the most effective change you made was looking helpful early on, and winning town cred early. Once you do that, the rest of the game becomes easier, as there's not as much pressure on you to do anything in particular, so you can advance your agenda as necessary. The first strike, if you will, is very important, as that determines the flow of the rest of the game. That's where the majority of the change was. In game two, your opening salvo was clearly not designed with finding scum in mind. In this game, you looked like you were being productive.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Sat Oct 28, 2017 9:10 pm

Never thought of it quite like that. I'll keep that in mind.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Mack_Coffins on Sun Oct 29, 2017 7:34 am

I want at least a week to do some free stuff without having to dedicate myself to this, I was WAY too busy having fun elsewhere to really do anything productive or attempt to coordinate with Otaku or try to make myself look not suspicious though I did want to get fingered for being silent, I didn't plan for the silence to win the game, that just kinda worked in my favor. Sorry lads.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

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