Mafia Round 3.5

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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:26 pm

Hey now, I'll vouch for Drunk Nihil. He may be all of the things you said, Nihil, but he's a FUN idiotic sad poet and philosopher!

Also, for context, that gif is supposed to be of a dude throwing a book at someone. So now you get it.

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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:40 pm

Fuck it. Mack isn't getting lynched today.

Vote to lynch: Hugh Jorgan

THR is the only one not voting at this moment. By my count there are three for me and four for Hugh.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Hans Gruber on Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:49 pm

I'm going to be the hammer vote on a goddamn town power role, I just know it.

Vote to Lynch: Hugh Jorgan
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Arc on Sun Oct 15, 2017 11:57 pm

Called it.

Hugh Jorgan, Town Doctor Has been Lynched.

Night phase will last 48 hours, and day phase will start on 10/17/2017 at 11:59 pm.  Get your night actions in before then if you want them to count.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Arc on Tue Oct 17, 2017 7:14 pm

I'm starting this early because everyone has sent in their actions, I'm impatient, and I feel like going to bed a bit early tonight.

Hans Gruber, Vanilla Town, has been killed.

A bullet to the brain, how horrifying.

Living Players:
0. Arc
1. Green Machine
2. Hugh Jorgan -Town Doctor
3. Otaku1889
4. Nihil
5. Like9Orphans
6. THR
7. Mack Coffins
8. Hans Gruber - Vanilla Town

With 6 left alive, 4 to lynch.

NEW DEADLINE: 10/28/17 at 11:59PM
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Tue Oct 17, 2017 8:05 pm

Hopefully THR comes back. I'm still rather certain he's town, and without his vote the game is literally unwinnable now.

I currently think the scum team is Nihil and Mack_Coffins. It could be Nihil and Like9Orphans, L9O is just so hard for me to read. But at this point I agree with the late Hans in his assessment that Nihil is mafia. The thing that really bothers me the most is that he tried to absolve himself from any reasoning for the target of his vote. The justifications for his votes were "RVS", "d7", and "statistically likely to result in a lynch; I'm drunk though so don't hold me responsible". The last one is especially reprehensible. The fact that Hans died is just further evidence, as he was most suspicious of Nihil, even more so than me (who he placed his vote on until the last minute when he was sure I wasn't getting lynched). I'm sure the defense to that will be something to the effect of "Why would I kill the guy most suspicious of me? It's an obvious frame job!" The short answer is that Hans was likely to convince people to lynch Nihil, easier to nip that in the bud.

We should be able to do this even without Doctor Oz Jorgan, but the next mislynch probably loses; only a vig could save us at that point. It does depend on THR coming back, as I pointed out earlier, so hopefully we see him again soon. But everyone not in the mafia is going to have to be united in lynching one of them.

Vote to lynch: Nihil
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Tue Oct 17, 2017 9:03 pm

Alright, I will acknowledge that from an outside perspective, things look a bit bad for me right now. But, I would like to raise some words in my defense:

You list my justifications for my votes fairly accurately (although you leave out the fact that, when asked, I did elaborate my reasoning [however shoddy it was] for my second vote). However, I don't think any of that is incriminating, for the following reasons.

The RVS vote was exactly that. An RVS vote. Also an OMGUS. Hans had just RVS voted me. I RVS voted him back. So scummy, I know.

The "d7" vote would look scummy, I think, if I had placed it on the person who already had multiple votes on him at the time (aka you), as it could just be an attempt at bandwagoning towards a mislynch with a thin façade of "random" legitimacy. But instead I voted for Mack_Coffins, and when asked if it was really random I conceded that it was not, it was just based on reasoning not up to my standards, and I laid that reasoning out. And that reasoning was true. Furthermore, if I had been going for a mislynch, I could have just thrown my vote on the bandwagon that was forming on you, bringing it up to 3 votes, which would have been joined by Hans as he had already stated, and which then would have put you at L-1, with public sentiment against you. Seems a much better route towards a mislynch, with a hell of a lot of cover. Strange I didn't take it if I'm scum.

Now, in regards to the third, I did change my vote because I thought, statistically, we were better served by a Day One lynch than by a Day One nolynch. As to my further comments, I don't actually believe (nor did I expect any of you to believe) that I shouldn't be held responsible for my vote because I was intoxicated. That was what would be known, in common parlance, as a joke. Please do feel free to hold me responsible for my change in vote, notwithstanding my intoxication. Although then please also hold yourself responsible for yours. And Hans responsible for his. We were all wrong on this one. At least, those of us who are town were.

Now, on to figuring out who the actual scum are.

The final vote list that resulted in the lynching of our Doctor was as follows:
Otaku
L90
Nihil
GM
Hans

Obviously, we can clear Hans from our list of suspicion.

In theory, it is also possible that no scum members were involved in this bandwagon, and that the town did this entirely to ourselves. If that is the case, congratulations, we should all kill ourselves. But I'm going to assume for now that at least one of the voters is scum. That gives me four suspects, three once I remove the only one whose alignment I can verify:

Otaku
L90
GM

Now, from a pure analysis of voting order and (voting) posts, I think the most suspicious one of the bunch is L9O. He was the second person to vote for Hugh, yet in his voting post he states that he is "jump[ing] on the Hugh bandwagon." There is no bandwagon to jump on if there is only one other vote. This might seem to be pedantic nonsense on my end, but I think it fairly significant. By stating in his post that he is jumping on the bandwagon, he is trying to portray a bandwagon where none exists, downplaying the strangeness of the vote he is casting. I would also like to point out that his stated reasoning for doing so was terrible, decrying Hugh's "timing" of jumping on GM's bandwagon. Now, I've already given my own critique of Hugh's (non)reasoning, but at the time I didn't think it was scummy, I just thought it was shit reasoning stemming from some self-righteous "hey everyone wanted to lynch me last game for being a shitslinger why does GM get to do it" sentiment. Even then, Hugh at least provided a list of the people he thought was scummy. And in L9O's same post, before talking about jumping on the "Hugh bandwagon" he mentions that he will be "jumping in on the bandwagon here soon unless something comes up." I can only infer from this that he was referencing the only actual bandwagon at the time, the bandwagon on GM.

So to sum, he says that he's going to jump on the bandwagon on GM, but first he'd like to cast a vote on Hugh for jumping on the bandwagon on GM.

Huh. Now that reasoning is... special.

Vote to Lynch: Like9Orphans
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Wed Oct 18, 2017 12:54 pm

Just so everybody is aware, I'm having surgery to remove my gallbladder tomorrow. If all goes correctly then it is a procedure from which I return home the same day. Even if that's the case I'm not likely to spend much time on here for the next few days.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:14 pm

I wish you the best of luck, although fortunately you're unlikely to need it. For the removal of an organ, gall bladder removals are ridiculously uninvasive, and not prone to complications. My mother doesn't have a gallbladder. I'm sure you won't miss yours.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:42 pm

I'll let L9O say something in his defense in regards to Nihil's accusations before I weigh in. In the mean time, good luck with the surgery GM!
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Like9Orphans on Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:58 pm

I may not be able to give this the attention that it deserves until Friday morning. I'm at work until 9 drive for an hour go Stella by 11. Get up by 7 to go to volunteer for the physical therapist until I go to work that day pretty much. My days are currently 13 hours Tuesday Wednesday and Thursday. If you have a point to throw against me go for it. All I ask is that I am not lynched before I can defend myself. I will be doing my best to fullheartedly play the game this weekend and such though despite others being unable.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by THR on Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:09 pm

Fuck Sorry guys i'm back. This week i had to pull doubles every day including my rehearsal time but now that my show is opening tomorrow, i will have lots more time on my hands

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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by THR on Thu Oct 19, 2017 1:21 pm

Will mull over and reply later tonight hopefully, and if not then friday morning before work

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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Like9Orphans on Fri Oct 20, 2017 9:32 am

Nihil I will propose similar logic to you as well. You say that you didn't jump on the GM bandwagon because it was scummy correct? If I had wanted I could have just jumped on the bandwagon that already had L-2 like I said I was going to, instead of going out of my way to change my vote to Hugh who at the time had one vote on him with less than 6 hours. I believe it is more likely that creating a 2 person bandwagon when there is already a viable 3 person bandwagon is not the mark of scum but the mark of a town actively looking for scum who are jumping in on the bandwagon. I had every opportunity to jump in on GM's bandwagon but in my pursuit of the truth I tried to see logic that unfortunately was not there. While I obviously regret the fact that not only did we mislynch but we also lost a very significant power role as well as by extension the person who was leading the town with the least scummy trail based on my creation of a bandwagon I truly did beleive at the time that there was some legitimacy to my argument. Hugh's logic was all messed up when he took the fuck it attitude obviously he didn't want to be lynched and was trying to defend himself but suddenly when GM takes the fuck it attitude that is reason for lynching. That along with the timing of jumping on a bandwagon to create L-2 without pointing to a valid reason was a big red flag to me.

Now as for my thoughts. Nihil thus far you have played a scummy game full of red flags that if it were anoob player would be scum fanfare playing in the background. The D7 the drunken quote a lot of your reasoning has been particularly skewed this game, and I can't tell if your goofing off or pretending to goof off so that we will ignore you as scum. I'm one to talk with the goofing off but I'm not making excuses for bad logic. I will admit that my logic may not always be correct but I always am trying to put down my thoughts. In that respect I am pretty straightforward, not good with gambits, not good with ploys. Maybe I am self-depricating, and maybe as you point out I am trying to downplay my characteristics to increase my chance of scum victory. As I am the only one who is aware of my alignment to my knowledge I can only say that i am for sure attempting to help the town out by picking out the scum.

That little ramble was not much else other than my analysis of your play style in this game thus far. Others take it for what you will.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:25 am

Regarding your first sentence, no, that's not what I said at all. I said that you said that jumping on the GM bandwagon was scummy, because that's what you cited as reasoning for voting for Hugh. I didn't jump on the GM bandwagon because I didn't think GM was scum. As I had explained in at least one previous post. The scummy behavior is you citing a reason for voting for someone immediately following your statement that you were about to do the same thing.

All of your pointing towards Hugh only marks him as a bad reasoner, not as a scummy one.

Now, regarding your second "paragraph", some defense:
First of all, I really do think you guys are looking way to far into the whole "d7" thing. Especially after I've already conceded (and did so well before it mattered) that the vote wasn't actually random. I gave my reasons, my reasons simply being that I didn't like Mack's lurk-forever-then-post-a-novel style. However, by my standards that might as well be a d7 roll (even if it's a slightly weighted d7), because it's not actually anything incriminating under a narrowly-construed logic.

Regarding the drunk thing, I've already stated that that was a joke. If you guys actually think that I would actually attempt to use intoxication as an excuse for why I shouldn't in-game be held responsible for my decisions, then I'm sorry you think so little of me. Like fuck. But what really happened was that I made a statistical decision, placing the value of a lynch as higher than the value of a non-lynch in contribution to town victory, and we lost the gamble. It is a mistake that at least two other players made. Assuming, of course, that GM is town. If he's scum it wasn't really a mistake on his part. But clearly Hans made the same mistake I did.

I am not "making excuses for bad logic." My logic has been solid this entire game. It's only when we've been playing with wild probabilities that things have gone awry.

You doing alright, L9O? You look a bit... flaily.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Like9Orphans on Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:41 am

You know I was feeling a bit down yesterday with the amount of things to do, but now i'm feeling a whole lot better. You know if this game that we call mafia we are (despite only being in day 2) in the end game. We are at the point of no return. We mislynch and more than likely the game is over barrring some vig shit or other things. We are what is known as being in range of quickhammering something that I am sure that Nihil and GM know about very well. It seems to me that you seem very insistent on ending the game earlier than the alloted 10 days with how aggressive you are being in this stage of the game. Town at this point in the game have to be very careful if 2 of us make the wrong vote on the same person its gg because the scum out there can quickhammer the game into finishing as fast as they can read. You and GM are being too aggressive this early in the day we still have another week and you are already throwing down votes like you are republicans trying to pass the new healthcare law.

I propose that either GM or Nihil are scum based on their aggressiveness (not excluding the possibility that both are scum and GM is trying to distance) I am by far leaning towards Nihil for his very clear attempt to get people to join on a bandwagon against me like its the county fair as well. I am not so stupid as to believe that both of them overlooked the quick hammering part of this game at this point.

Lastly if we have a day vigalante... PLEASE USE YOUR POWER NOW!!! We need to try and even the playing field as quickly as possible. If you feel the need to kill me go for it if you think that I am lying, but I do implore you to utilize it You are not going to be getting much of a better use out of it than here. If I'm killed and flip town then we have 3 town to 2 scum and one more persons alignment revealed and the rest of the day to lynch someone else. If I'm scum I'm just signing a death wish. If we have a night vig then dear god we need that used tonight no matter what. We need any chance of trying to pull off any kind of victory.

I'm also unsure of what to say about the potential for our investigative roles here. We need information now to get this game back at all. If we have a cop we at least have the potential to pull it to the necessary 3rd day by revealing their role and their information. Obviously it would be a bad idea because they would most certainly be killed in the night by the mafia but if anyone has any power to prevent it we would have a chance and we would be able to bring it to the necessary 3rd day to win at this point. the long and short of it is that anything that we can get that is pertinent information is key here.

My last thing is that don't be dragged in by words of victory because victory is not certain in any case. We as the town need to put down the information that we can to help the game along and provide us with a win. Think for yourselves and do as you see fit but just remember that if a town person gets lynched and the game is lost for the town it is not my fault alone.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:09 am

Casting a vote after explaining my reasoning is not an "attempt to get people to join on a bandwagon against [you] like its the county fair", it's presenting information and argumentation. You know, that thing that we need to do so that the town has more stuff to go off of. Casting a vote at the beginning doesn't mean I want the day to end early. I very much would like a lot more discussion. *looks at lurkers*

I will express my wholehearted agreement that if there is a vig in the game (or, heaven forbid, a dayvig) then that person needs to hop to and start slabbing people. But for some reason I kind of doubt that there's a vig.

I also think that a cop needs to do some copping, although now that the doctor is dead a cop is going to have exactly one opportunity to share findings before getting the axe, assuming the scum aren't playing like total shit. By the way, message to the scum team from me: please play like total shit. Kthxbi.

Regardless, Otaku, THR, Mack, get in here. We need more discussion and as much information to be presented as possible.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Otaku1889 on Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:36 am

It's time once again for (big booming voice) THOUGHTS ON EVERYONE. *Audience cheers. One claps for too long. I throw brick at him. Everyone laughs. It's good fun*

Nihil: Currently Nihil's on the top of my town list. All of the arguments against him have been fairly nitpicky at best, and he's been able to logically refute them and explain his actions. The d7 thing sounded scummy at first, but his subsequent explanation for why he called it that made sense for him. The so-called attempt at dodging responsibility for his Hugh vote by claiming to be drunk is entirely B.S. I'll get to L9O's "being too aggressive" argument in a moment...

GM: Oh hi L9O's "being too aggressive" argument! How've you been? So, to explain, I'd like to point out that while Hans was certain Nihil's scum, he also suspected GM. It'd be fairly easy for either one of them to use Hans' death as a way of framing the other. The fact that GM came out swinging against Nihil (and undercut any claim of possible framing), while Nihil hasn't so much as suggested an argument against GM, just rubs me the wrong way. Probably tinfoil hat territory, but it's still something that strikes me as suspect.

Mack and THR: Lurking is scummy. PURPOSEFUL lurking even more so. However, something Hans said stuck out to me. "Mack strikes me as mislynch bait." After my fuck up in voting for Hugh, I'm a little cautious of going after either of them... That being said, POST DAMN YOU!

L9O: *Inhales sharply* Okay, so, L9O's recent "being too aggressive" argument strikes me as odd. Not in substance, but the fact that HE made it. He says that he suspects Nihil for aggressively going after him... whilst previously and simultaneously being aggressive against Nihil. He also points a finger at GM, but far less so, which strikes me as kind of odd, since Nihil's been able to explain his own actions thus far (unless he's going after Nihil purely as retaliation, which could be scummy in it's own right). Overall, L9O's at the top of my scum list.

That being said, what does everyone think of a no-lynch for today? I'm personally more in favor of trying to lynch scum (If my independent Skyrim arguments didn't let you know, I show no mercy to terrorists), but everyone's right in that if we mislynch, we lose...

But hey, I'm drunk on buckets of gin, and high on coke, meth, and magic markers. Nothing I say should be held against me in a court of law! Rolling Eyes
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Sat Oct 21, 2017 12:10 pm

Having this few players means we don't have much time to get things right. No-lynching can only possibly help us if there is an investigative role and they survive to Day 3; if it helped us in any other circumstance then the mafia wouldn't kill anybody either. Now as for said investigative role claiming, having whatever information they can give does give us the best chance of victory. But there are a couple issues with claiming today. One is the aforementioned problem that they will definitely be killed at night by the mafia and thus get no more information to us. The other is that the mafia can still try to fakeclaim, and if we guess who the real one is incorrectly then we lose. So I would say that an investigative role should only claim today if they know for a fact we are about to lynch town and lose the game, however if that happens we still need to be wary of the possibility of it being a fakeclaim.

I don't like Otaku's read of Nihil as town. One thing that bothers me about it is how he is giving weight to some of Hans's reads but none at all to others. He places value on the read of me as scum and the read of Mack as mislynch bait (and references both in his own reads), but completely ignores the reads of Nihil as scum and L9O as town. Thinking he was right about some reads and wrong about others is fine, and since Hans was town it is probably the case. But you can't use his reads to defend your own when some of them are notably different.

The other thing I don't like about reading Nihil as town is Nihil's last vote on Day 1. No not the part where he talks about how he shouldn't be held responsible for it because he's drunk. The part where he says that is statistically most likely to result in a lynch. At the time there were three votes for me and only two for Hugh. Hans and I didn't say anything about potentially hopping on the Hugh bandwagon until after Nihil's vote. So I'm a bit confused as to how that makes Hugh the most likely to be lynched.

Hopefully Nihil can clear up how he thought it was most likely to result in a lynch. It did result in a lynch, but I feel pretty certain that if he voted for me then either L9O or Otaku would have flipped to me instead of Hans flipping to Hugh. Right now it looks like he is intentionally being soft on me, trying to lend credence to the idea that he and I are scum partners. As long as I am the one who gets lynched first that works out great for him, because now lynching me loses the game for the town.

We still have a week, but if we use this week incorrectly turn the game is over. So hopefully Mack and THR get back in here with plenty to say.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:24 am

A brief clarification:

I did not switch my vote to Hugh because I thought he was the most likely to be lynched. I switched my vote to Hugh because he was more likely to be lynched than Mack, on whom my vote was cast at the time.

As I have already pointed out in posts today, if I had just been going for a lynch for its own sake, I would have gone for you. But I was not convinced you were scum. Granted, I wasn't convinced Hugh was scum either, but Hugh had already proven himself... logically deficient, let's say.

Of course, if I'd known he was the FUCKING DOCTOR, such as by the wonderful thing known as CLAIMING YOUR ROLE IF YOU'RE ABOUT TO BE MISLYNCHED, then I would have pulled my vote immediately. Granted, we were pretty close to the deadline so I can understand if Hugh was simply not aware that the bandwagon had gone to him.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Nihil on Tue Oct 24, 2017 9:24 pm

Well... it has been over 48 hours since the last post, and the last post was mine.

I'd bet the scum are happy.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Green Machine on Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:49 pm

It currently appears that THR and Mack have abandoned the game. There are still four days left until the deadline, but we certainly aren't making the most of the time provided. If in fact they don't return then this game has no chance of recovery. Even if they do it isn't likely to feel much like a real game. Unless things really pick up by the end of this week I'm going to feel pretty detached from the outcome.
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Mack_Coffins on Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:56 pm

yeah, Ive been kinda lazy and doing some other things, Im still here and will get back to it when I get a bit of free time before the week is over
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Mack_Coffins on Tue Oct 24, 2017 10:57 pm

For whatever reason Im still not getting notifications on the darn posts, I thought nobody posted this last weekend, Ill have to check in more often dang it!
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

Post by Mack_Coffins on Wed Oct 25, 2017 7:35 pm

Well I'm sorry to say lads my opinions have not changed much over the last week, I suppose I'm still suspicious of GM from the prior week, and nothing much other than actions based on being drunk or a roll of the die can't glean enough to sway me to really think Nihil is more likely to be scum than GM currently, I can understand skepticism aimed at L90 but it's ambivalent enough for me to not really warrant it as scummy in and of itself, seems like he's at least picking up the slack of the dead and missing, GM may just feel he is rightfully on the fence in that regard because nobody has been around to ask hard questions like the last match I suppose.

I do think we are reading into Nihil a little more than need be just claiming inebriation doesn't warrant a lynching, much like it didn't for Hugh getting the rope for being "logically deficient" and though I may be in the lead for the lack of posts I would start extending my witch hunting finger for THR over GM (though I hesitate to say because Otaku seems happy enough to lynch regardless of possible innocence, and he has some of Hughs blood on his hands like the rest)

I guess I'm still becoming adjusted to the forum format, Im so used to roles having at least some impact after day 1, and though the doc and a vanilla townie are dead we should have SOMETHING to go on, but alas, we may as well still be in the first week because I don't trust my own read after thinking of Hans being so scummy, I may have to second guess my read on GM but it's just too hard to feel any confidence currently, I cannot tell a poker face when everybody is wearing masks and we can only judge actions based on how much alcohol one had to imbibe when the weeks end is on the horizon and the deadline swiftly approaches...

I suppose I'll ask a question of my own to hopefully reignite discussion and stop the finger pointing if only for a moment before we can continue to discern the wolf in the sheep pen

What would be the proper meta near the endgame if we have no information to go on? we could attempt another lynching but Im not confident and if we mess up another it sounds like that might be it, there is no investigative information at current, is there any alternative to a proper roll call that would bring the town back from the edge at this point or is the last chance we have a lucky lynching?
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Re: Mafia Round 3.5

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