Mafia 2: Cage Match

Alright, I've seen a lot of activity and feel I should come clean.

The motive behind me dropping a vote I potentially couldn't retract is neither stupidity or villainy, but something arguably worse: simple apathy.

I wasn't sure how much I was going to be able to participate, or even how much effort I was willing to put forward, and dropped the vote primarily so I had contributed something to the game out of respect to the person who had extended the invite.

The game has since proven far more in depth and interesting than I at first assumed, and I regret my previous stance. Especially since it appears to have taken a negative effect on the meta.

My general silence is not so much attempting to lay low as it is genuinely not being sure how to properly contribute. My hasty vote was clearly a faux pas on my part and I want to avoid doing so again.

So I'm going to take a long look back over the thread and try to get my bearings on the remaining players one more time and then post my current thoughts.

I have time for one more quick reply tonight, so quick it shall be. I'll take this opportunity to give a heads-up that you all will probably not hear from me at all tomorrow. I doubt I will be able to spare any time for Mafia posts, since I spend Wednesday afternoons running Pathfinder (which is like Dungeons & Dragons, for those of you not familiar with the name).

Anyway, onward.

@Green Machine:
1) On the subject of No Lynch, I misunderstood you, then. Your response has adequately cleared up my confusion. In following with my general stance of "run out the days as long as they'll last", I agree that if we take a No Lynch it's not something we need to do now but rather when the deadline is closer.

2) I have two main reasons for thinking we may not have a cop in this set up. The first is that having two investigative power roles for the town is very powerful, even if one of them is one shot. Secondly... How many power roles do you think the town has? Tracker, one-shot vig, JOAT, cop, doctor... At that point, over half the starting town has power roles. I've never played a game moderated by Hans before, but in my experience with Mafia as a whole I don't think I've ever seen a game where the town got that many power roles (exception given to a single game advertised specifically on the gimmick of everybody having a power role).

3) I'd like to put this more eloquently, but unfortunately I really don't have time. So, I'll opt for being blunt instead, and elaborate more if desired later: you've convinced me.

@TNS: This is an interesting time to come clean, when most of the time has voiced that they would understand that play as being a beginner's mistake. You were pretty safe to continue without further elaborating on that situation since I'm (I think? No time to double-check!) the only person who still found it sketchy. So, the fact that you did choose to provide some more information reflects well on you. I look forward to hearing your thoughts later on, and would also like to quickly add that I'm glad to hear you find this game more interested and nuanced than you originally expected.

Okay, that's all I have time for. Ghosty out, see you all again on Thursday.

"...when most of the town has voiced that..."

Not "most of the time". Grrr, typos.

I think that the town has several power roles, since our moderator said as much in the sign up thread for the game. He said there would be fewer vanilla townies than the first game. My guess is that there were three vanilla townies (one of whom is now dead, leaving two vanilla townies and four power roles) and that both remaining mafia members are likely to also have power roles of some sort. The most that fewer than five could be is four, meaning yes, over half of the town definitely had power roles.

Alright, here we go.

Green Machine: Almost certainly town. Effectively the only reason we got a mafia member at all, and has been highly aggressive in stirring up information and discussion

RedBeard: Has been fairly passive (not that I can talk) but when they post they've primarily been the voice of caution. They also fingered Arc on the second day and defended GM, which has proven to be the correct decision.

Ghosty: Suspect #1. One of the more aggressive players, which seems good, but at the same time has been primarily focused on focusing attention on a small group at a time. Most of the questions posed seemed to lead to a choice between two or three players, rather than opening everyone to suspicion. And I don't know if that's a town play to try and focus on scum seeming players or a mafia play to divert attention.

Dsilv87: Currently leaning towards town because of the body's previous soul. As others have pointed out, it's unlikely a mafia member would react that strongly if they really were mafia.

Like9orphans: Probably town, given the informative nature of his big posts. His post on the three big players was pretty-well put together which doesn't seem like what a mafia would do. Also him contributing as much as he has despite his irl situation means he's clearly trying to put information forward.

Otaku1889: Iffy, simply by lack of information. Not much to go on, which is pretty good cover. That said, I did the same for completely out-of-game reasons so concluding he's mafia based on that is reckless.

Eyesack: Suspect #2. He and Ghosty have been going at each other since he came aboard, which could just be because of lingering suspicions on Eye's previous soul and Ghosty's existence as the last unconfirmed role of the three big posters. Has been posting a lot, but a lot of that posting has been targeted at Ghosty. Who in turn has some good arguments for why Alk/Eye might be mafia.


So in conclusion, I believe either Ghosty or Eyesack to be scum, but not both of them. In fact, if one is revealed as mafia/town, I'd be willing to bet that the other was the opposite.

That said, I'd like to hear other's thoughts on this before I make an actual vote.

Good Evening Townies and Scumbags alike. Thank you for such a warm welcome to this game.

I'm getting acquainted with all the nonsense going on here and I gotta tell you all...there's a lot to read through here. If you could limit all posts to 100 characters or less, that would help my Nic Cage character quite a bit.

Dsilv's first post was post number 420 on our forum. I'm sure at least one Cage celebrated appropriately.



Now we only have a little over two days to decide who to lynch, or to decide that we shouldn't lynch at all this time. I'm curious as to everyone else's thoughts on that particular subject. Should we lynch or should we wait, and why? I have a vote cast for Otaku at the moment, but I'm very much on the fence about whether or not we should lynch today.

Ah, screw you too forum, cropping the Cage out of my picture and ruining my joke.

I was going to say that is a very lovely picture of a woman that I do not know.

To answer my question I'm staying with my previous reasons. I think it's a very valid strategy but this Is supposing otaku doesn't do anything else scummy. Pending that the hammer will be dropped.

I can't edit the post because it would result in my summary execution, but if you select to open the picture in a new tab then you'll get a nice look at a high-as-fuck Nick Cage.

Green Machine wrote:I think that the town has several power roles, since our moderator said as much in the sign up thread for the game. He said there would be fewer vanilla townies than the first game.

That is something I had forgotten Hans had mentioned, so maybe you're not far off the mark. Incidentally, Hans, what is the current vote count?

TotallyNotSuspicious wrote:That said, I'd like to hear other's thoughts on this before I make an actual vote.

Well, out of the two people you peg as scum, I think Eyesack is the Mafia member. To be fair though, it's obvious from my perspective that I'm town... Geez guys, didn't you all get my role PM from Hans?

More seriously though, I have some questions I want to ask about your reads. The first is, if you're so certain that Eyesack and I aren't both scum, which people do you think are likely to be scum!Eyesack's partner? Likewise, who do you feel would be my partner, if I were scum? Lastly, is there anything other than the way that Raptor-Senpai left the game that makes you feel his replacement is town (the same thing makes up most of the foundation of my judgement on Dsilv, but I'd still like to know more of your thoughts)?

Dsilv87 wrote:Good Evening Townies and Scumbags alike. Thank you for such a warm welcome to this game.

I'm getting acquainted with all the nonsense going on here and I gotta tell you all...there's a lot to read through here. If you could limit all posts to 100 characters or less, that would help my Nic Cage character quite a bit.

Welcome to the party, you'll find your complementary one-shot day vig power under your chair. Please use it wisely by not using it at all, just like everybody else.

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT
With 8 players alive, it takes 5 votes to lynch.

Otaku1889: 2 (GreenMachine, Redbeard)
No Lynch: 1 (Otaku1889)

The deadline remains tomorrow at midnight. I am reliably informed Dsilv has his notes prepared, and will be making a grand post as soon as he gets the time. Hopefully that will be tonight, but we will see.

Editing instead of making a new post to inspire jealousy, then again because it didn't say I did the first time. Try to get as many people on tomorrow as possible. If the day ends with 3 votes cast I'm going to be severely irritated. At least have higher civic participation than the U.S. average.

I'd like to pose a question to everyone. Regardless of whether there is a no-lynch or not. Who do you think the mafia is most likely to kill during the next night phase and why?

Thank you, that's what I thought the situation with the votes was, but I'm glad to have it confirmed. I'd like to ask a question to everybody now: how likely do you think it is that at least one of Eyesack and Otaku1889 are scum?

Directed at Green Machine and Redbeard (the ones currently voting for Otaku) specifically, what do you think of his most recent post? I can buy his justification for being absent, personally, but I also don't think that gives him a free pass to avoid looking scummy for lurking since it's a very convenient situation for scum to be in. Giving reads goes a good way towards making him look less scummy, but not enough to make me call him town yet.

Lastly, directed at Otaku1889, if we were to lynch TNS today and he is revealed to be town, how would that affect your reads?

That's a good question Eyesack, and it's one I've been thinking about myself lately. Presumably, the Mafia would most desire to kill Green Machine, but is afraid to do so because they know that if the town has a Doctor, Green Machine is almost certainly the person the Doctor will target. Based on that, I can strike him off the list of likely Mafia targets (unless the town's Doctor dies, in which case RIP GM). I also think the Mafia is unlikely to kill me, because if they wanted to do so they probably would have already- they may be leaving me alive in hopes that it will confuse the town. Otaku and Eyesack are both currently highly suspected of being scum by the town in general, so would be poor targets for the Mafia because either they're actually town and the Mafia has killed their best scapegoats or they really are Mafia and... the Mafia would be killing its own members for some reason? Obviously not a play. To a lesser extent, the same logic applies to TNS. L9O and RedBeard are currently the cleanest unconfirmed players and are widely considered neutral reads, so I think they are the most likely to attract the Mafia's night kill.

Oh, but if the Mafia wants to be a dick, they'll kill Dsilv since he just joined.

Now, I have a follow-up question for you, Eyesack. Why did you ask that question?

Believe me, I had every intention of reading each and every post on this thread but, alas, I failed. However, I made it through all of the first two votes and that seems to be a good place for me to start. I'd like to reserve the right to clarify my thoughts tomorrow evening when I've had a chance to read all of the lead-up to this third vote and finally cast my vote.

A quick question for the group (mafia scum, feel free to be honest and not deceitful): How do you interpret players who are very quiet and post little? I mean, we can all chalk it up to them being busy and not posting much, but is there a scenario where you can imagine a mafia player literally trying to post nothing, appearing to be aloof? My initial thought on the matter is that I'd be excited to try and stir the pot and get the herd moving in the wrong direction (as Arc displayed in the initial vote with lots of posts and vote-switching), but I'm starting to think that there is a mafia member who is intentionally quiet. Thoughts?

Therefore, quiet players such as Like9, Otaku and TNS (to a lesser degree), aren't off my list of suspected scum. However, if my guess is correct, and it's just a guess, I think only one would be bold enough to try that strategy.

As others have pointed out, GM was the first to point out Arc emphatically, so I would agree that is a Town move all the way. (Just getting that out of the way and making my post a little longer) (Also, I like to use parenthesis) (a lot)

I have trouble getting a read on Ghosty. He's either a great information gatherer for the good of the group, or wants to use that information to move us in the wrong direction. Wouldn't be a bad strategy to have one loud scum and a silent one.

So, my one true suspicion here is in regards to Alkeriece/Eyesack. We all know that Arc was trying to manipulate the game, instigating the PR/KSS bickering, etc. But he was also doing it with his voting. Arc was the first to place his vote and it was on...Eyesack. When the tide turned, he immediately removed the vote and place it on Purple Ram...with Eyesack. Arc eventually moved on to KSS and Eyesack voted no lynch, maybe to throw off the collusion. Thoughts?

Not quite sure where I stand on Red. I'll have to follow up tomorrow night.

Anyway, like I said, I'll read pages 8,9 and 10 tomorrow and re-evaluate where I stand. My disadvantage is that I don't know anyone outside of the game...but maybe that's an advantage? No vote yet.

By the way, that was a high Cage in that botched pic GM. Found it after a few google searches.

Is discussing who we think the mafia will kill actually a good idea? Only the doctor and the mafia can make use of that information, the rest of the town can't really do anything with it. It does go along with my general strategy of wanting people to say as much as possible, I'm just not sure this won't end up doing more harm than good. Also I agree with Ghosty on the answer, meaning everyone else is likely to just echo what the two of us have said. So I too am interested in knowing why eyesack asked that question.

To answer Ghosty's question, I find it extremely likely that one of eyesack and Otaku1889 are scum. I'm currently not even considering Like9Orphans as a suspect. I'll list every other combination of scum teams in descending order of likelihood I think it is the correct combination:

eyesack & Otaku1889
Ghosty & Otaku1889
eyesack & TotallyNotSuspicious
eyesack & Dsilv87
Otaku1889 & Dsilv87
Otaku1889 & TotallyNotSuspicious
Ghosty & eyesack
Dsilv87 & TotallyNotSuspicious
RedBeard & Ghosty
RedBeard & eyesack
RedBeard & Otaku1889
Ghosty & Dsilv87
RedBeard & TotallyNotSuspicious
RedBeard & Dsilv87
Ghosty & TotallyNotSuspicious

RedBeard is quite clearly the person I find least suspicious (other than L9O of course), all combinations with him are in the bottom half of my list. Ghosty is all over the place in there though; he's either an extremely good townie going above and beyond what everyone else is even attempting to do, or an outstandingly deceptive scum.

More directly addressing Ghosty's question, the highest ranked combination that includes neither eyesack nor Otaku1889 is Dsilv87 & TotallyNotSuspicious, right in the middle of my list. So I reiterate that I find the likelihood that at least one of eyesack and Otaku1889 is scum extremely high.

Some of you may notice that the combination of Ghosty & eyesack is near the middle of my list rather than near the bottom. That's because I have somewhat changed my mind of the likelihood that the two of them are scum partners. Ghosty backed off of his read of eyesack as scum, if only by a step or two. Additionally although eyesack seems to strongly believe that Ghosty is scum, he fails to place a vote for him. When eyesack made his longest post defending himself and attacking Ghosty no votes had yet been placed for day three. At the time Ghosty was the player I had in my sights. When I started the wagon on Arc in day two it only took about 4 hours for him to get lynched, and the other players seem to mostly trust my judgment, so the failure to cast a vote despite eyesack's supposed level of certainty of Ghosty's guilt seems to me like he's possibly trying to avoid having a bandwagon lynch his scum partner too quickly.

I'll end this post with a note for our doctor: Protect me during the night. The mafia definitely wants me dead since I'm confirmed town. So don't let any discussion of who the mafia is most likely to target distract you. I can use my shot of doctor to protect Like9Orphans. Or maybe I'll protect RedBeard? Or maybe I already used that power? The point is that there is no need for you to play that mind game with the mafia, I'll let them engage in that game with me.

Hmmm, the more I think about it the less certain I am that I gave our doctor good advice. That's because of my guess that two-thirds of the players here have power roles of some kind, including the mafia. I'm trying to speculate what roles the mafia might have, but a roleblocker seems like a sure bet. If the doctor protects me then the mafia just roleblocks me and kills someone anyway, without having to worry about whether or not I protected someone....



Trying to figure out the other role they have is tougher. I feel rather certain they don't have a strongman; if they did then he would have killed me last night. If we do in fact have a cop then they might have a godfather, which would nerf the hell out of our cop. Possibly more terrifying is that they might have some sort of rolecop. If they find our cop then they roleblock him constantly, turning him into another vanilla townie; if they find our doctor then they promptly murder him. It also makes any days of no-lynch far less valuable - possibly actually harmful - if the mafia has an investigative role of their own.

So, I didn’t want to say anything until I actually found something significant, but given the current voting situation, I figure now’s a good a time as any… I’ve been keeping my head down because I’m a cop.

Reporting my findings, on night one I investigated Purple Ram. Her aggressive defensiveness made her seem suspicious to me, but upon finding out her role, her behavior made sense to me. I asked for clarification on how vigilantes worked because I had never played a game that included one…

On night two, for obvious reasons, I investigated Ghosty. I’m pleased to report that he’s vanilla town, though he can confirm or deny as he sees fit. To me his behavior seems obvious in retrospect. As vanilla townie, the town wouldn’t lose much mechanically should he die, so why not be the first to ask questions? I hadn’t done much to defend him until now because I figured he’d be able to dig himself out of any hole he found himself in.

In regards to questions asked since I last posted…
Eyesack: Asking who the mafia is likely to kill sounds scummy to me. It becomes a WIFOM situation that confuses the doctor. “Well, these are the people the mafia would be likely to kill… But the mafia would KNOW I know that, so I can’t defend them! But the mafia may have taken that into account, so clearly I MUST defend them!” Repeat ad nauseum.

Ghosty: I’ve actually softened my stance a bit on TNS. His post about admitting to apathy at the start of the game went a long way in explaining his actions, and is a reason I can sympathize with. I wasn’t too invested in this game either until you made things interesting by kickstarting the in-depth analyses. If I had to say whom I consider the most scummy to me at the moment, I would probably say Eyesack, for his most recent question. I haven’t seen enough of Dsilv87 to form a proper opinion of him, though I like his profile picture. Otherwise, my previous assessments still stand.

As for what I should do now, if anyone has any suggestions they’d like to make regarding investigations, I’m open to them.

Well this is definitely the only thing we'll be talking about for the rest of the day now. So Otaku1889, you're a cop? You can't screenshot it, but please tell me the exact result you got when investigating Ghosty.

GM: Not sure how much identity of his Cage character matters, but if Ghosty wants to keep it secret, I'll leave it out.

The result, minus character, is as follows: "Ghosty is *character*(movie character is from), Vanilla Town."

I see. And again you cannot screenshot it or quote the whole message, but please list for me the title of your own role as presented in your role PM. You can do your character too if you want, I'll leave that up to you.

Title is Cop. Character is Balthazar (Sorcerer's Apprentice).

Just a note: If Ghosty gives me permission, I'll reveal his character identity. Until then, I consider it a matter of privacy.

Alright, that's all I need. Our actual cop does not need to counterclaim this. Otaku1889 is obviously a liar, and we need to lynch his ass. Interestingly I think that this means his scum partner is someone inexperienced in at least this form of Mafia; either that or Otaku went rogue here with this fakeclaim.