Mafia 2: Cage Match

That's entirely fair, and I hope I didn't come across as too harsh in that last post. I just really struggled to understand where your argument was coming from and how you continued to hold on to it. Keeping the pressure on and asking probing questions is a reasonable approach to trying to get more information out of other people, but it unfortunately can also lead to misunderstandings.

I can certainly relate to wanting to draw the day phases out in this game, however. It can't be drawn out for much longer though, as the deadline looms over us all.

TotallyNotSuspicious, you have precious few hours left to say anything. You might not be able to avoid being lynched at this point, but if you really are town then now is the best time to provide any last words- reads, insights, questions, obscure details from older posts. If you come up town after being lynched, we'll be able to verify everything you've said through the course of the game as definitely coming from town.

"He's not even a Cage!"
"I saw him lurking around, trying not to look suspicious."
"Yeah! We were only in that movie for a second!"
"I agree. Let's get him!"

TotallyNotSuspicious has been lynched. He was Brad's Bud (Fast Times at Ridgemont High), Vanilla Town.

It is now Night 5. This movie has reached its climax. Get me your Night Actions.

Four Cages awoke together. After a lengthy interrogation to make sure they were the same 4 that went to bed, it was back to the grind. One of them must be the bad guy, but who?

It is now Day 6. With 4 alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch. The deadline is Friday, September 8.

WHAT

THE

EFFF?

Hans, question to the moderator: Is the mafia allowed to elect a "no kill" night the way that the town can vote "no lynch"?

Yes, the mafia have the ability to not kill anybody if they so choose.

I protected Ghosty last night.

What would be the benefit of the mafia not taking an action last night?

This is a conundrum. Ive been racking my brain thinking about why they didn't kill anyone. What are your thoughts Ghosty?

I didn't expect this, but it's actually the strategically intelligent move for the Mafia right now. Let me try to explain this clearly.

We have four people now, one of which is the lone Mafioso. If they had killed someone last night, there would be three people alive total today instead and the town would have a 1 in 3 chance of finding scum. By not killing someone at night, the sole remaining scum is hoping to force the town to lynch when there are still four people alive, when the odds of the town finding the correct lynch target is 1 in 4. Mislynching will cause the town to lose regardless of whether we have 3 or 4 people alive before the lynch, so it's actually in the Mafia's best interest to keep a person alive and force the town to kill before them.

In other words, because the town WILL lose on the next mislynch, the Mafia didn't need to kill someone and doing so only would have served to reduce the number of scapegoats that could be lynched in their place today.

It's also in the town's favor to force the Mafia to kill before we lynch, for the inverse reason- we are more likely to lynch the scum after the scum has reduced the number of people to choose from to 3. So in theory, what the town should do here is No Lynch until the scum has made a night kill so that we lynch at an advantage. But because the town and scum both have an incentive to let the opposing team kill first, this game will never end if neither team is willing to make the first move. Incidentally, this sort of scenario is sometimes referred to "Happily Ever After" because the logical thing for everyone to do is stop killing and everybody lives happily ever after.

Also, this tells us that the scum is confident that there either is no Cop or that they are a Roleblocker who feels they have found the Cop and will roleblock them forever. Personally, I think the former is more likely, but it really doesn't make any difference which one is true.

Well damn... that leaves us with little choices here. That e=leaves us in an awkward position... Do we try and sniff the remaining scum out and take the chance or do we just sit idle for the rest of the week and no lynch... Im leaning to actually doing something because the game is no fun if we sit by and do nothing. however a draw is better to a loss... Im not really sure what to think here. Im still thinking of questions that we should ask to try and sniff it out. What are your guys thoughts?

Thanks, Hans. Yes, that's what I was afraid of. So, that leaves us with two possibilities of what happened: either they mafia did not kill someone (most likely what happened) or they were role-blocked and the town wins (what I was hoping to be reading on here). Unless one of you has a very sick sense of humor and will wait four more days to tell us the good news, then it is exactly as Ghosty laid out.

I guess what it really boils down to is: Who sees a tie as being better than losing? L9, seems like you do. I'd rather take a shot and lose than call it a tie. The one point I disagree with Ghosty is that the win percentage really isn't 1 in 4. If you are town, it is 1 in 3. And if you have any type of insight in who you suspect, as in you can eliminate one of those three right off the bat, then it's 50/50.

I say we go for the win. In order to get there, I want to ask a question to the group in a different way. I want to hear from each person who they believe 100% town, besides themselves, and why. Then, who, of the remaining two, you would eliminate, how confident you are, and why you hesitate.

I'll go first. I least suspect Eyesack. I understand that saying you are bodyguard is extremely unprovable and would be a great mafia claim and, at this point, I'm willing to let that be a winning strategy if it's a lie. One thing we've glossed over is that he claimed it early. Had we ended up with a doctor claim after, it could have thrown a wrench into his claim completely. Although I don't agree with how he's protected players, I pushed him on it and felt that he reacted the way a town player would have: angrily.

Of the remaining two, I would eliminate L9 as my suspect. Now, I know I've been pushing this theory that he was the quiet mafia, but my true intention was to get him to participate and reply, but also to see who would jump in to defend or attack my theory. I would say I'm 65% sure I would eliminate L9. I hesitate because he just hasn't said enough that we could use against him. He's been fairly quiet, which is how a mafia might play it. In other words, if he turns out to be mafia, I wouldn't be shocked.

Although I asked everyone just for their least suspected player and second-least, I'll elaborate on my highest suspect. I would lynch Ghosty. Here are my reasons in no particular order of suspected scumminess:
1a) The explanation of the scenarios above. I think that knowing the Happily Ever After outcome and pointing it out just feels like bragging about the mafia strategic move.
1b) Not the first time that a statement would feel like that from Ghosty. Way back at the beginning of the game, there was a statement he made about a town leader playing the good guy all along, despite being mafia, and GM even made mention that, "If you are mafia, you'd be chuckling while typing that" or something to that effect.
2) The quick vote last lynch. Throwing that vote out there at the beginning of the week and then not acknowledging or suggesting moving it to his other suspect, Eyesack, just seems very fishy to me.
3) Otaku used his fake cop claim to say that he could confirm Ghosty as town. Either this was a complete slip-up or he believed that the two of them could work together to the end.

Well, there you have it. I won't place an official vote, but let's see where everyone stands.

Official Vote Count
None.

48 hours have passed since the last post. The deadline remains Friday at midnight. It will be enforced exactly at midnight this time.

I don't think suspecting Ghosty based on an explanation is a sound argument. We were all either ignorant of why the mafia would do such an action or feigning ignorance. Either way a more experienced player would be in a position to explain why certain action happened better.

That being said Ghosty's lack of responses are suspicious to me after his action the rest of the game.

I least suspect no one. With you all declaring vanilla town it is hard to do any sort of confirmation on your roles and how hey are being used. I'm not saying it's not possible for the remainder of the town besides myself to be vanilla town it just makes a judgment call and weeding out much more difficult.

That said. I am tired of waiting and I do not want to tie. I want to win or lose. So I am rolling the dice and voting.

I vote to lunch like9Orphans.

L9O please give us your updated reads in all the player and what makes you least likely to be scum.

I do believe that Ghosty is on to the most possible solution for the answer for the mafia's actions as if we had a cop he would have role claimed as such and given us his information by now. To answer your question Eyesack I will first put forward my thoughts on who I think to be scum. In order Ghosty, Eyesack, and then Dsilv.

I think the most likely candidate to be Dsilv at this time because of his sudden change of who he was accusing. It seems like he is trying to go out on a limb with another weak argument. Saying that Ghosty is most likely scum. It is very hard to articulate that Ghosty is the most likely candidate at this time. He has constantly been on the pro-town side of things. Asking the first questions and solving the big questions as well. While his experience is intimidating as a potential scum it is also a big boon to the town. This brings me to my next point of why I think that Dsilv is incorrect about Ghosty. If Ghosty were scum then as a scum town leader I think he would put out more assertions and try to narrate the game more in a way that would push us to mislynch. Instead he is pushing us to think and really attempt to delve into the posts.

Dsilv also posted something that caught my eye.


Page 12 Dsilv

Ghosty - I'm leaning against you being scum simply based on instinct. As much as you post, I feel, if you were scum there would be more pointing of the finger and you mainly stick to facts. Ghosty is the one town that I'm believing.

Eyesack - I still have my suspicions over the way the first vote went, but claiming to be bodyguard up front on the role call is risky if you were the only mafia, so I'm leaning against you being scum. 

TNS - You are either the mafia or the cop that GM insists exists. Now, I'm not convinced there is a cop and even if there is a cop, we can't be sure that it's not a variation of cop.

Like9 - Ditto on what I wrote about TNS. However, I suspect you the most. The recent posts that you've had are sort of contradictory. At one point you say that revealing our role is dangerous and the next bullet point is well, I agree with the strategy, I'll reveal my role. Also, there's this notion of "I'm really busy, so I'll just post what I can," which is sort of the commentary that Otaku used. To me, it sounds like a way of distancing without standing out. Don't take the personally, as it could very much be true and we are all busy in real life, but I feel like it could be a gameplay type of deal.

Why would you suddenly change from thinking it was me to thinking it was Ghosty when one of your last reads were of this nature? This was also the part where you voted to lynch me that day. What suddenly changed your mind so much that you think that Ghosty is not town any more? (legit question)

As for yesterday's last statement what do you mean by not all questions, comments are to achieve the obvious answer? Why did you post that there and then vote to lynch TNS when you had been pressuring me so hard?

Dang, Ghosty, you are hammering me here. Let me just say that not all questions/comments are to achieve the obvious answer or reply. I've agreed with your suspicion since you posted it last week, but wanted to get the most out of the other players. If we didn't drag it out then it would be a quick vote, I feel, and I'm still not 100% certain.

Vote to Lynch: TotallyNotSuspicious

In all honesty it sounds like a flop on the mafia's part. Especially when your argument for why it is Ghosty is based on his potential attitude behind the screen, his early vote for TNS which could have easily been overruled and was not changed because no evidence had come forward that would suddenly change his opinion or anyone's opinion, in fact it seems like that was a really no scummy thing to do by putting his vote out in the open for such a long time. As for your 3rd point I would like to point out that GM was the one that pointed out that an inexperienced players actions such as Otaku's would have been rebuked by a more experienced mafia member. I accent this by a little hint that was dropped by Arc in his last statement.

Arc page 7

3. Trust nobody, I did not work alone in any of my decisions.

This of all of his nonsense seems to be the most true of his statement. It doesn't make sense for a mafia member to make such a large decision by himself. Since GM was the one that pointed out the inexperienced member part I can be confident that Ghosty did not set up that very elaborate trap. He would have been the one to point out the inexperienced comment if he were mafia.

As far as yourself Eyesack upon rereading over the entire posts I am brought back to how as Dsilv had pointed out that you were one of the first to reveal their role. This is risky as if there was another medical role you would have had a much bigger issue on your hands if you were mafia. With that statement it became clear that you were telling the truth.

So that is my read on who is mafia. Now to address the second part of the question, While yes I didn't post a lot in the early game I have given a lot of post when I did give posts. As for your second part of the question I'll start with my early comments about the 3 leaders of the town. I first off gave equal scrutiny for all 3 leaders in great detail. I pulled no punches at that point because we didn't have anything to go on as far as who might be mafia. Luckily GM came in with the big reveal as we were not getting a whole lot done.

I would also like to point out that as Ghosty has said I did reveal his gambit in full. If I were mafia I would have liked to pressure people into taking the no lynch approach as it is more beneficial for the mafia. Other than that I would like to ask you Eyesack what made you inclined to force me to talk.

And now for my added parts to the equation. Ghosty I do want your thoughts on my read as well as if I am missing anything in particular. You haven't said anything in a few days and I was curious why.

Because, I am sure you will ask me why I haven't invited Dsilv to Lunch like Eyesack did for me I will point out that if I did vote to lynch Dsilv I would be putting us in a tie which would not get us anywhere if we let it go as such. And with the pace that this game has been taking recently I don't think that it is a good idea. I put myself out there for you and Ghosty to judge. My earlier statement about not wanting to move forward with the game being more interested I believe was misinterpreted as me wanting to have a stalemate. It was to put forward so that we could see the options in front of us. I am in favor of this game ending this week if nothing else just to have some closure.

Like9Orphans, p14 wrote:however a draw is better to a loss...

Dsilv87, p14 wrote:I'd rather take a shot and lose than call it a tie.

You both misunderstand me if you think I'm saying we have the option to force the game to a tie here. Mafia does not end just on account of the game going X days without a kill or something like that. It ends when someone wins, and has no rules for declaring a game a draw. The only way the game ends as a draw, even if day and night pass back and forth for months, is if Hans decides he's sick of us doing nothing. Personally, I'd rather not end a game like that either, but unfortunately there's nothing we can do to FORCE the Mafia to kill first.

I echo L9O's opinion that this game should end sooner rather than later, which unfortunately means the town must act first.

Dsilv87, p14 wrote:The one point I disagree with Ghosty is that the win percentage really isn't 1 in 4. If you are town, it is 1 in 3. And if you have any type of insight in who you suspect, as in you can eliminate one of those three right off the bat, then it's 50/50.

It's 1 in 3 from any individual townie's perspective, but no single townie gets to decide who is lynched. The town collectively decides, and the town collectively does not know our individual roles. But the exact numbers and probabilities are not my point (especially since, as you've noted, our own suspicions skew the numbers); only the fact that whichever faction kills first is putting themselves at a disadvantage is what I was trying to express. People asked for an explanation of why there was no night kill. I gave an explanation.

Anyway, that aside, I'm going to answer your question now. I do not believe any living player other than myself to be town with 100% certainty. I recognize you were probably employing a bit of hyperbole, but I will never accept someone's role with 100% certainty until they are dead and their role card has been flipped. But the person that I am currently least suspicious of is L9O, on account of previous behavior throughout the game and the specific instance of him outlining why the town should not have pursued a double-No Lynch strategy yesterday, which I will again point out is something that the scum would have benefited from allowing to happen and therefore would most likely have at least passively allowed if not supported (but certainly not oppose while also explaining clearly why it would have been a bad idea).

Eyesack and Dsilv are the remaining two players, and Dsilv had previously been given a lot of grace in my mind by Raptor-Senpai's actions, but he has gotten up to some scummy behavior since replacing in. For starters, I don't like the arguments he has made against me. Not just because they are against me, but because they feel weak. I'll take a brief moment to address them.

Rebuttals to Dsilv's Slanderous Accusations:

Okay, now that wasn't very brief after all, but I addressed those points. I'm not even sure if your suspicions are genuine or just another exercise in you trying to grill someone like you supposedly did L9O last day phase, but I addressed them nonetheless. Actually, wait a moment- that conveniently transitions into the next point I wanted to hit up! Man, it's like I actually know what I'm doing.

I gave Dsilv a pass on his bad arguments for L9O being scum and the way he suddenly dropped it all when he explained it away as follows:

Dsilv87, p13 wrote:Dang, Ghosty, you are hammering me here. Let me just say that not all questions/comments are to achieve the obvious answer or reply. I've agreed with your suspicion since you posted it last week, but wanted to get the most out of the other players. If we didn't drag it out then it would be a quick vote, I feel, and I'm still not 100% certain.

Vote to Lynch: TotallyNotSuspicious

I interpreted this as Dsilv just saying he wanted to put TNS in the hot seat, but the day phase ended before I really had time to reflect on it more. L9O drawing attention back to this post has made me think about it again though, and in hindsight I do think it's fishy. The big red flag I should have noticed is that it's vague. Vagueness isn't good for the town, but it's great for the scum because it doesn't really pin them down to a particular stance or opinion and people often gloss over vague comments (as I did at the time, for example) while still maintaining an illusion of contributing to a discussion.

I'd like to know more definitively why you (Dsilv) were pressuring L9O so much, and what made you decide to give it up and back off him.

Moving along from that, I need to also explain my absence. Well, I blame it on a combination of 1) last weekend being an extended holiday weekend that I wanted to spend on more important stuff than Mafia like visiting my family and 2) a difficulty in formulating my posts at this point in the game. As I've expressed before, making a post, particularly a large post that needs a lot of research, can take me quite a bit of time. I had originally started this post on Tuesday, but was not able to finish it before I needed to go to sleep on account of having a handful of other things I also needed to do that day. On Wednesday, I was unable to reply because (as with literally every Wednesday that this game has been running) I was pre-occupied with running a Pathfinder game for pretty much the entirety of the afternoon and evening. So, in other words, my defense amounts to "real life got in the way".

L9O I wanted to get your reads on the situation because in the past they have been quite substantial and informative. I have heard a lot from Ghosty before the last lynch but not as much from you. I voted to lynch you to put even more pressure on you for a response. Based on Ghosty not voting quickly in the past, with the exception of TNS, I assumed a majority would not be reached quickly unless someone saw something very suspicion of you since the other town would not want to lynch very quickly. As I stated I do not have a good read on anyone at this point so pressuring you for more information in this most recent day cycle seemed like the best call.

I would really like to see Dsliv's responses to the the post from both L9O and Ghosty before I would move a vote. As I stated before in the post I voted for L9O I was not least suspicious of anyone. But I am also not most suspicious of anyone either which is why I randomly voted for L9O to apply more pressure on an answer. Now that you have answered I will be removing that vote as I do not see a point for someone to think that I think you are more suspicious then anyone else left in this game. Again, it was just to apply a lot of pressure and give a sense of urgency to post since we were getting closer to the deadline.

Vote to Lynch: nobody

About 5 hours remain until the deadline. I remind everyone that it will be enforced precisely at midnight CST.

Votes to Lynch: None.
Lunch Invitations: like9Orphans: 1 (eyesack)
Ths invitation will be enforced the next time L90 is in the greater St. Louis area.

Vote for lunch to be Sushi Eyesack's choice.

Wow, leave for a few days and there's a flurry of activity! Good stuff!

While I can't even hope to somehow organize replies to all the questions, I will try to address the general questions asked of me and explain a little further.

Addressing Ghosty's mathematical disagreement with me: Look, nobody is 100% sure of who the scum is. I'm simply trying to boil it down for the group to say that each member has a 1 in 3 guess. I was trying to see if we could come to an agreement on who was not a suspect, making everyone's choice a remaining 50/50, then see if we suspected the same person using the same reasons...to no avail. However, in the end, I think we all agree that we should take a crack to end the game. So...awesome!

Not to mention, the mafia player has essentially made the decision to have a tie be a preferable outcome. By putting us in this position, seems like they have committed to wanting that outcome, which, if you really think about it, is a very strategic play.

This goes into how I arrived at the conclusions I stated right after the last night phase. Think back on our situation. Eyesack was the only remaining claimed power role and, since the cop hadn't come forward, I was even more convinced that Eyesack was a remaining power role...and therefore town. In order of most suspect to least, this is where I stood: L9/TNS, Ghosty, then Eyesack. Honestly, I was sure it was between L9 and TNS, no doubt about it.

Everyone has to form a strategy and this is what I had to figure out: How do I force the mafia to reveal something to me? My plan had two parts: 1) Get L9 to talk more since I suspected the mafia was laying low and he was my suspect (TNS had been slightly more active) and 2) Try to get the mafia to not kill Eyesack. In my mind, had the mafia killed Ghosty/TNS/L9 in the last night, then I was going to vote to lynch one of the remaining two. If the mafia had killed Eyesack, I'd be left with only remaining town claimers (this is also a problem that GM alluded to). So, I made a sort of sideways claim, agreeing with Ghosty that Eyesack's decision-making was a little suspicious. Also, L9 replied several times, making some very good claims and, as Ghosty pointed out, was against a double no-lynch, etc. L9 gave some very good logic and, to me, made it a no-brainer to go against TNS.

Eyesack, you admitted to doing the same thing to L9 in this latest round. Throwing a vote at him to get him to defend.

This is why I made the vague statement to Ghosty to the effect of "not all questions are made to get the obvious reply." Ghosty was drilling me on the L9 suspicions and I couldn't outwardly tell him that I was simply probing. Again, I wanted the mafia keeping Eyesack in the game. Hopefully that addresses at least why I made the plays that I did. (Also, I'd like to say that GM's threat of nut punches for not agreeing with his cop claim should somehow be addressed in the next iteration of this game)

So, back to where we currently are after the a-hole mafia made a no-kill choice. Again, I've been convinced that Eyesack is town all along and conceded that I'm willing to let him win if he truly lied and I fell for it. In my mind, now, it's between Ghosty (who I've sort of believed the town-leader deal all along) and L9, who prior to the last kill had convinced me he was town. This is where, Eyesack, I had to come up with reasons why I was going to vote for someone. You are all correct, none of the reasons is going to be catching the person red-handed, they have to be sort of rationalized.

Ghosty is a strategic player. The mafia just made an extremely strategic play.

Ghosty has made comments alluding to a town leader being mafia all along, which GM even made mention of. Is that the end all, gotcha moment that makes him scum? No. But those comments haven't been made about Eyesack or L9.

And since Ghosty wants me to say it, I'll say it. I don't buy any of the explanations for casting the early vote last round, especially since he suspected two people. It also put me in a really bad spot because I did not suspect Eyesack and didn't want him to eventually get lynched, so I didn't want to push the vote his way.

To clarify the other way, the only arguments I have in my head for voting to lynch L9 would be: He hasn't been as active as Ghosty and his statements about Nihil, both of which are weak (and, ironically, defended by Ghosty).

There you have it. I'm not 100% sure it's Ghosty, but I want to take a shot at the scum and he makes the most sense in my mind.

Vote to lynch: Ghosty

I'll be back on at 11 to see if there are any other points that I need to address.

Lastly, sushi sounds great. Vote for Hans to supply lunch sushi

Hahaha, I quit trying to post an image. It's Nic Cage eating sushi.

Fortunately for me (and the town), ties result in no lynch occurring, so I will quickly place a vote in attempt to not die and prevent the town from losing here. Unfortunately, I am increasingly ready for this game to end and wish this day phase could have been the last. Oh well, I'm not going to throw the game away for myself and my teammates just because of that.

I'm going to OMGUS Dsilv, since it doesn't really matter where I cast my vote right now so long as I cast it and I want to be cheeky.

Vote to Lynch: Dsilv87

The Mafia may be banking on their ability to patiently outlast the town in a waiting game, but perhaps they weren't counting on the fact that it might take the town weeks of in-game time to actually organize a lynching.

Get me out of here.
Vote to lynch: Ghosty