Mafia 2: Cage Match

I am tired of driving and want to try to get my text dump out so that I can contribute where I haven't been.
1. I have been hesitant to drop my role for a couple of reasons. Everyone dropping their role is a very dangerous game. They reveal what strategy that they have been using this game and it becomes apparent who is who. The second reason Is that if they lie about who they are it is likely to be a case of them getting lynched because they are caught in a lie.
2. I have come to the conclusion that It is safe enough to try here because as was mentioned the mafia is most likely inexperienced and that is apparent by the play made last night. This narrows the list. By forcing them to lie we can get them to make another mistake these make me confident enough to join in on the role calling.
3. I am a vanilla townie.
4. Now that I am almost free (Still traveling very far) I should be able to contribute more in the way of talking more frequently.

Dsilv87 wrote:Ghosty was just an easy one to prod since I knew I would get a response (and, subsequently, was wrong that he would reply).

words

...they used one on Purple Ram (can't remember her role) and maybe one on Nihil? Thoughts on that topic?

Was "that" a typo that should have been "what"? Otherwise, I don't really understand what you mean here. You knew you would get a reply from me, but you were wrong that I would reply?

Incidentally, I actually started that post like 20 minutes before your post, and I had seen that you posted when the forum gave me a chance to review your new post and modify my own before submitting it. But, it was late, already later than I wanted to be up, so rather than editing it to acknowledge your post I just submitted it as it was and went to bed shortly after.

Also, PurpleRam was a one-shot vigilante, if I remember correctly.

Green Machine wrote:Also, go ahead and claim if you want. Same goes for L9O. TNS may not check this board for days, and we can't afford to stall the conversation that long.

Seconding this. I'd prefer to see TNS claim sooner rather than later, but we do need to have everybody claim quickly because time is not a luxury we have right now.

I'm a vanilla townie if it helps. Sorry, I'm running into a critical lack of free time.

Oh good, a flurry of activity! Now only Dsilv has yet to claim.

Ghosty, just ignore my poor attempt at humor. I was basically saying that I typed that slight accusation just to get a rile out of you and you basically glossed over it. Moving along...

Thank you, GM and Ghosty, for clarifying my train of thought. Let's remember, however, that Otaku gave a clue that he has lied. About what, I'm not sure, but he did lie and I was trying to parse through if he lied about who was investigated. We can only assume that Purple Ram was one, but it's conceivable that he was lying about Ghosty. Not that it means Ghosty is implicated, just that it could be one of his lies.

Sorry, everyone has claimed since I posted. I am Vanilla Town

God damn it. Why is our cop lying? Did he only investigate people who are now dead, and he's trying to stay alive long enough to find the scum? Saying that the miller existed to possibly foil my one shot of cop is an extremely tough sell, and I'm not buying it.

We don't have a doctor, but we do have a bodyguard, which is sort of an inferior version of doctor. I'm inclined to believe eyesack's claim. I wonder if Hans would tell eyesack who Alk used his power on during night 1? Seems like information he should have a right to so that he can use/share it. You should ask Hans about that privately eyesack, and let us know what he says.

I'm fairly certain that the liars are people claiming to be vanilla town. The problem is that I think we have two of them, the scum and our cop. So that is going to make our search a bit more difficult.

Hey Ghosty, since you have the most Mafia experience of the remaining players I have a question for you: Town Roleblocker targets Mafia Roleblocker, and Mafia Roleblocker targets Town Roleblocker. Mafia Roleblocker also performs the night kill, which is an action that can be prevented by the Town Roleblocker. Does the night kill happen or is it prevented? It seems as though the moderator is stuck choosing which side's roleblocker effectively didn't function at all, and I'm wondering what your experience with this is, if any.

I ask because last night I used my roleblocker action. For the record I did not use an action at all on night 2; I had too little information to use any of my remaining actions constructively. Night 1 of course I used my cop action. Last night I used my roleblocker action to block eyesack. I now tremendously regret that, since as the only other player claiming something besides vanilla townie I am inclined to believe him. But I feel it is pretty likely that the remaining mafia member is a roleblocker, so I'm curious how that interaction of mutual roleblocking would normally play out.

I can't offer long and detailed replies today, but how Roleblocker VS Roleblocker situations get resolved usually varies from moderator to moderator. I think in most games, that sort of scenario would end with the nightkill being prevented, but we'll only know for sure what would happen in this game if Hans clarifies how Roleblockers interact. It's also worth asking him if the Roleblocker would be able to use the nightkill power of the Mafia and his/her own Roleblocker power, as I have seen some games where the Mafioso are unable to use their own power AND deliver the nightkill.

On a separate note, yes, our scum is likely lurking among the claimed Vanilla Townies. It is, after all, the safest claim for scum to make at this point- claiming a power role risks them getting counterclaimed if someone who actually has that role is in the game.

Assuming we trust Eyesack's claim, though, this has still narrowed down our pool of suspects. A Cop hiding among the Vanilla Townies has the potential to narrow it even further, even if they don't survive long enough to investigate during the next night phase- after all, revealing themselves now would eliminate one more candidate from the pool of suppose Vanilla Townies. Also, considering Eyesack is a Bodyguard, a Cop would likely be guaranteed to survive at least one day, since Eyesack could protect him/her at the expense of his own life. That would allow the Cop one investigation, and since there would only be three supposed Vanilla Townies left after the Cop reveals themselves, an investigation result would almost assure victory for the town.

However, the above only holds true if nobody we believe Eyesack's claim (and the remaining Mafioso is not a Strongman or Roleblocker). Unfortunately, I'm not confident enough about all that to say we've got a sure-win on our hands.

I feel pretty sure that the remaining scum isn't a strongman. They definitely don't have an unlimited-use strongman, but I think even a one-shot strongman would have taken the opportunity to kill me on night 2, when I was a sure protection target for the doctor (or bodyguard as the case may be). As to whether or not a mafia roleblocker can both block and kill, I can't be sure. I suppose we can beseech our moderator for an answer just in case he decides to give one. Hans, is your understanding of mafia-aligned roleblockers that they may both block and kill, or must they choose one?

Green Machine wrote:Hans, is your understanding of mafia-aligned roleblockers that they may both block and kill, or must they choose one?

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT
None. With 6 alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.

Yeah, I didn't think we were getting an answer to that one.

I'm going to discuss strategy as though the scum is a roleblocker and can both use his power and perform a kill. If the cop has zero useful information, then it's probably best that they stay hidden, otherwise they are just going to get roleblocked.

Now as long as we actually do have a cop hiding in our midst (which I'm still convinced is true) we probably should opt for a no-lynch today. The disadvantage is that the mafia will definitely be killing a confirmed town. The scum will almost certainly target me, but then they have to decide between roleblocking the bodyguard to actually kill me, and blindly roleblocking one of the other townies hoping to prevent the cop from getting anything while letting the bodyguard take the bullet. I feel certain that the scum won't target anyone who claimed vanilla town, because if they do and that person isn't the cop then we win the game by the cop claiming.

This part of the game is the same either way: We lynch two people that claimed vanilla townie and hope we get the one who is actually scum. If we're about to lynch the cop then they can claim and avoid that fate. Under no circumstances should an actual vanilla townie claim to be the cop! That is a sure loss for the town. But by not lynching today we buy time for the cop dig up something useful during the next night. If the cop claimed right now then our chance of winning would be 2 in 3; but if the cop can successfully investigate any one of the other three claiming to be vanilla town then we can go all the way to 100% chance of town victory. And to successfully investigate they must stay hidden for now.

Typing this is working as thinking out loud for me. So anyway, sorry to our cop that I yelled at him for lying before, that was the right call. We no-lynch today. During the night the cop investigates any one of the other three people claiming vanilla townie. If he gets a result then he claims his role and tells us results; if he found the scum then we lynch that one, while if he found a town then we lynch the other two. Any glaring holes in my plan that I'm missing gentlemen?

Yeah I can't see anything wrong with this plan. We have the most chance to oust the mafia this way.

As I understand it, of the three claiming townie, one is a cop, one is mafia, and one is town, right?

If so, then I can offer a suggestion: lynch me. It eliminates the only hiding place the mafia has and the cop can reveal himself. At that point we have him.

I'm afraid you miscounted TotallyNotSuspicious. There are currently four people claiming to be vanilla townies: Yourself, Ghosty, Like9Orphans, and Dsilv87. There is another problem with your scenario, which is if you are vanilla town and get lynched then both the scum and the cop can claim cop afterward, and we only have a 50% chance of guessing correctly and winning. The second mislynch from here loses the game for the town. But the incorrect number is a more fundamental problem.

My guess is that one of the claimed vanilla townies is the scum roleblocker and one is our cop. If that's true then I feel that my plan is pretty solid. I am of course looking for anyone to point out any obvious holes in my plan that I am not seeing. But I'm also looking for opinions on how likely it is that my scenario is correct, because if it isn't then we probably need a different plan.

Posting my two cents' worth on the matter...

I'm torn on this no lynch strategy. I understand that mis-lynches are a big error at this point in the game, but we lynched KSS at the beginning of the game with relatively little info. Essentially, what I don't like about the strategy is that by not lynching, we're saying that we have no idea who the scum could be despite all the information we've taken in throughout the game. Should we have a cop and they execute an investigation and not turn anything up, we're back at square one (we're also assuming that they are telling the truth). Also, if there's a one-shot mafia or role-blocker, then GM is dead and we're still left with four townies. Even if the cop survives the night and is investigates, we will be down to one in three.

As is the nature of the game, at some point you have to sort of rely on instinct and go with it. I know that I am not mafia, so here is where I stand on my suspicions.

GM - At this point, I have to believe that he is town. I don't know what one-time actions he has left, which could be an oversight of the reading, but he's added too much to the conversation to be scum.

Eyesack - I still have my suspicions over the way the first vote went, but claiming to be bodyguard up front on the role call is risky if you were the only mafia, so I'm leaning against you being scum.

Ghosty - I'm leaning against you being scum simply based on instinct. As much as you post, I feel, if you were scum there would be more pointing of the finger and you mainly stick to facts. Ghosty is the one town that I'm believing.

TNS - You are either the mafia or the cop that GM insists exists. Now, I'm not convinced there is a cop and even if there is a cop, we can't be sure that it's not a variation of cop.

Like9 - Ditto on what I wrote about TNS. However, I suspect you the most. The recent posts that you've had are sort of contradictory. At one point you say that revealing our role is dangerous and the next bullet point is well, I agree with the strategy, I'll reveal my role. Also, there's this notion of "I'm really busy, so I'll just post what I can," which is sort of the commentary that Otaku used. To me, it sounds like a way of distancing without standing out. Don't take the personally, as it could very much be true and we are all busy in real life, but I feel like it could be a gameplay type of deal.

All that being said, Vote to Lynch: Like9

If everyone agrees with GM, then that's fine and my vote won't hurt the group. Feel free to tell me why my suspicions stink and I'll try to reason through them.

As a final point, if there is a cop and they are torn on who to investigate, I will tell you right now that investigating me will do you absolutely no good. I'm vanilla town. Of course, that's exactly what scum would say, but I don't think they would come out and say it first (not to investigate me). I think the scum is laying low and being agreeable. Do what you will with this information.

Two days of silence, finally broken! And I was in the middle of writing a post complaining about that very thing. I'm not sure that much is going to get accomplished Monday while everyone is either staring at the sky or stuck in traffic. So anything getting done is likely getting done today.

Dsilv, the cop would only get no result if they get roleblocked. Which is something a mafia roleblocker would have to attempt to do by blindly roleblocking someone claiming vanilla townie and hoping the gamble pays off. I feel like they are more likely to roleblock the bodyguard in order to make sure I die, but I can't be sure. Just my saying that's what they are most likely to do may prompt them to take a different strategy.

Like9Orphans is definitely higher on my suspect list than he was yesterday, but I'm not ready to put him to the noose. Not with as little as has been said. We need more information. I will say that if you want the vote to count then I believe you need to use his full name.

For now, Vote to lynch: No lynch. But I'd love to hear more from everyone before the deadline.

Ugh, with this strict formality on the voting. What is this, Jeopardy?!

Vote to lynch: Like9Orphans

To state my case a little differently: Voting to not lynch is a benefit to the scum, yes? Although I agree with the way you are phrasing it, GM, that you are doing it to buy more time for the cop, we are also counting on the cop to blindly select to investigate the correct member.

I think it's obvious to state that this final mafia member has been playing the strategy of saying as little as possible. I think they would be agreeable with a consensus that doesn't put them in the noose, would offer little in the way of helpful insight and is trying to stay under the radar. I urge the group to come to a consensus to lynch in this day phase. I propose either Like9 or TNS (who, oddly enough, miscounted and volunteered to be lynched).

So...I'm really bad about knowing how to share someone's quote on this forum, but I would encourage everyone to go to tab 4, the discussion before the first lynch and night kill, which happened to be Nihil. Like9 was answering the general question posed to the group about who he would like to play with as mafia, blah blah. Notice who he zeroes in on during his discussion: Nihil. At that point, Nihil had participated only once during the game and so his perceived threat was coming from past experience in these types of games. My guess is that, without much knowledge of the town, the mafia zeroed in on a strong player early in the game. Please consider my theory and offer suggestions/holes I'm not considering.

No Dsilv, the cop only needs to get a result (not be roleblocked). Even finding a town wins the game if that happens.

Addressing Dsilv's other points:

A single no-lynch does not benefit the mafia in the sense that we still lose on the second mislynch from that point, not the first. I explained this math in a previous post.

The subject of why Nihil died is a horse that has been beaten so badly that the next assailant is likely to be stuck in glue. You are right about why he died. However you seem to be singling out L9O's answer to my day 1 question while ignoring that three other players also included Nihil in their answer, including myself. And we all gave pretty much the same reason. It is in no way evidence that L9O is scum.

Still wondering if anyone else is going to speak up. Do we really have four players content to say absolutely nothing for four days? Because while I want to agree that the scum are most likely say the least, it's hard to pick them out from a crowd of mutes.

Less than 6 hours remain until the deadline. *crickets*

Official Vote Count
L9O- 1 (Dsilv)
No Lynch: 1 (Green Machine)

I remind everyone that if the vote is tied at the deadline, no lynch occurs. I can't promise I'll be awake at midnight, so the deadline will be the point after midnight when I check this thread.

The last few days have kept me busy but I have been determined to find the time and drive to make at least this one more post before the day phase closes.

There are four supposed Vanilla Townies. I know one of them to definitely be a Vanilla Townie (myself), but no one else can be certain of that- most importantly, the remaining scum can't. That means, to the Scum, there are three possible hiding places for the Cop. If they are indeed a Roleblocker and can indeed use their kill and Roleblock at the same time (assumptions I don't know if I accept yet, but probably the worst case scenario for the Town), they can give themselves a 2/3s odds of preventing the Cop from contributing to this game tonight by targeting their abilities at two of the three other supposed Vanilla Townies. Odds drop very slightly if Eyesack throws his Bodyguard power somewhere in there, assuming he isn't actually the scum.

Unfortunately, at this point, there is nothing for the town to do except wait. I've turned over in my head every possible scenario I can think of for the game, and ultimately  I think we must do a No Lynch today. We will, in all likelihood, be down a Townie tomorrow but that also means we'll be down a suspect while not actually reducing the number of days we have available to us.

Vote to Lynch: No Lynch

Apologies for the lack of posting. Weekends are busy for me. I was informed by Hans the Alk did not protect anyone with our bodyguard ability.

I am in agreement with the no lynch strategy for tonight. I would pose a question though for myself as a novice. Would it be better for me to announce who I protect at night or does it matter? I am afraid that even if I protect someone then I will still be targeted so as to not get rid of one of the four Vanilla townies. UNLESS they wanted to take a guess at who the Cop could be so as to eliminate his investigation. This is of course assuming we have a cop. Either way a mis-lynch is dangerous for the town.

Vote to Lynch: No Lynch

Changing my vote to go with the crowd, even though it doesn't matter. Vote to lynch: No lynch

I still stand by my suspicions, but I can't make it more convincing of an argument if it plays out the way it is most likely to.

Eyesack, regarding your question... I think it's pretty obvious that the mafia is very limited on their play and giving them an advantage ahead of the night is a bad idea. Forcing the mafia to choose between role-blocking you and blind role-blocking the cop is a much better scenario for the town.

"Hey, why don't we just try to talk this out?"
"Great idea, Nick, you handsome devil."
Six Cages started drinking together until they passed out. Nobody mentioned it, but they all wondered how many would be alive when the booze wore off.

It is now Night 4. Get me your night actions ASAP.