Mafia Round 3

Hugh, even I am running out of patience giving you the benefit of the doubt at this point, but if you want to reassure me of your vanilla townie flavor I will ask of you one thing:

What are your opinions on every player so far, it doesn't have to be a paragraph per player, a single line of what you think about them would suffice.

I'm just doubtful you're putting the effort into playing by now, likely reading only the last short 2 or 3 posts prior but the day is quickly passing and you're not digging yourself out of the hole many of us have metaphorically procured a ladder to assist you in doing so.

I'm still not convinced you are a mafia member but just blaming green machine while he has a solid chance at being the town miller isn't going to be good enough to get anything done at current, and at the very least it's making us 3 in particular form a very small circle jerk, he wants you dead on grounds of maybe being a hinderance with lack of substance in posts, I believe you're not scum albeit they see fit to kill somebody who doesn't drum up a solid filibuster of a speech absolving them, and then you post 3 single lines with no real insight as to why or the reasoning behind it, unfortunatly it's going to take more effort than that to not be hung because these people will apparently stay the course under the banner of "there is no choice" SO GIVE THEM GOOD REASON TO THINK TWICE MAN!!

My vote to lynch remains Hugh Jorgan. This statement adds much to the knowledge base of the town. I'm glad we had this talk.

For those of you who have functioning brains: What do you make of the fact that Hugh said he wanted to start actually playing and earning our trust back, then immediately went back to posting nonsense? Is that a town read or a scum read? Or does it say anything about his alignment? Mack seems to be willing to give Hugh the benefit of a doubt because he knows the guy in real life; I don't know the guy, so does anyone else who knows him care to weigh in on his behavior?

I'm also curious what everyone thinks of our quietest players. Some quick opinions I have based on the little they have said:
- Ralphie has only one post since confirmation, but it was a beefy post. It was a while ago though, and I'd love to hear an update on his perspective.
- Sisco put down a vote, but it seemed to be retaliation for a vote that was no longer on him, which seems odd. Then he seems to encourage Hugh to start kissing ass, which is probably a better strategy than Hugh's current "diarrhetic chimpanzee" approach but also seems like an odd thing for him to say.
- THR wrote a post that said pretty much the exact same stuff that put LiteralGrill in the hotseat. Which strikes me as a thing that a townie would do if they hadn't paid enough attention to the other posts; there can't be this many scum ignoring their team. I guess there could be if the scum team's strategy is to pass off everyone as slow newbies. But I rather doubt that is the case.

Will do mack. I will make a post later tonight when i have some free time

I am leaving town for the weekend to stay out where i have no service if I do not respond untill monday this is why I have been super busy and probably should of waited untill next game to join. Sorry for the lack of responses I will try and do better when i get back. Dont wast a good vote on mw unless you just want me out but im no mafioso. And why Hugh because he tried to kill me off its just a grudge.

It's a fine morning where I'm currently residing. The weather seems nice, the birds are happily chirping, cars are zooming past, and JESUS HOLY BLASPHEMOUS SHIT FUCK GUYS, SO MUCH POSTING HAPPENED LAST NIGHT! Excuse me while I try to catch up...

*2 Hours later*

Haha... Yeah this is going to take me a while. I'll just post a few things and come back with a more comprehensive post later.

"I don't understand why you would leave such context out of your post unless you either hadn't figured out how you want to spin it or you honestly had no opinions on how the actions people took last game could relate to what's happening this game." -Ghosty

Ghosty, I think what we're feeling right now is a fundamental difference in how our minds work, logically and ideologically speaking. Just as you don't understand why I didn't use my recap as an opportunity to push for any theories I had, I don't understand why doing so would've been a good idea. Firstly, my objective with doing so was not to push for a narrative, but to get everyone on the same page. I can understand how alienating it might be to a new player that previous games you weren't a part of are being used as significant evidence. I view this as an unfair disadvantage, so I sought to rectify it. Related theories could come later. Secondly, I think posting theories at that point would've been viewed as scummy, since it could be seen as an opportunity to prey upon new players' lack of knowledge and push narratives. Incidentally, I find it retrospectively hilarious how the act of trying to selflessly help others also happens to be the paranoid line of thought.

Answering L9O's questions: My biggest fault last game was lurking too much. I didn't actually contribute much to the game. I urge players in this game that are primarily lurking to cut that shit out immediately. As Nihil said "One does not learn mafia play by lurking IN A GAME IN WHICH ONE PARTICIPATES." As for finest moment, you seem to have a much higher opinion of how I played, so I'll let you decide what that would be... What makes for scummy posts and people? Simple: Scummy posts have suspicious behavior in them. Scummy people continue to make suspicious posts.

Moving on, my readings of Mack have changed significantly. I'll go into specific details later, but with as much as he's posting, and how much he's talking, I'm going to assume town for now, barring future suspicious activity.

"I'm not only keeping my vote on you, I'm a hair's breadth from encouraging everyone to lynch you even if they think you are town, just to put you out of our misery." -Green Machine

I can understand this sentiment, and if we were to do so, now would be the most optimal time to do it. I don't agree with it. After thinking things through, I think Hugh is just bumbling town. If you look over my post explaining how things would have to have happened if Hugh was scum again, I think you'll find that two of the situations are insanely implausible and the other one is implausible insanity. I don't deal in implausibilities of this magnitude when more plausible possibilities are still on the table.

In regards to a "for the greater good" lynching, I think this is a waste of the town's time. If you think Hugh is more likely to be town than not, and find Hugh's behavior annoying, ignore it. There're other players exhibiting scummy behavior (LiteralGrill as a prominent example, though we'll have to see how her replacement plays...), and I think there's a better chance of the town lynching scum on day one if we pursue those leads, as opposed to Hugh. And who knows, maybe Hugh will wise up. If he drops out for some reason, maybe his potential replacement will do better. Maybe one of them will lead us to victory. Overall, I think there're more advantages to letting him live for now.

This post was longer than expected. Actual readings to follow later, when my brain can absorb all of what was said since I last did a proper reading...

So, this post is just going to be a short attempt to answer some things thrown my way. I'll post in a more in-depth and full manner later, probably tomorrow.

First, regarding a read of me by L9O:

Like9Orphans wrote:The big thing is that he is very good at putting down minimal words to maximum effect which is just the combination needed to make a good scum with misdirection.

So, I'm... good at articulating information? And that's bad?

Ghosty wrote:There are really just three questions I have for you after looking over all your reads again. The first is, has the revelation of LiteralGrill's choice to drop from the game affect your read of her at all? I ask this because, if she really is dropping from the game for the reasons that have been explained, it would make it seem more likely she simply didn't have time and taste for the game rather than that she was intentionally keeping a low profile to try and sneak by the town. Secondly, could you restate your read on KevinSafeSpacey? It stands out to me from all of your reads because you never really say whether you think he's scum or town at this point, you just pat him on the back for not giving a repeat performance from last game. Third and lastly, now that Hugh Jorgan has made an attempt at defending himself, are you satisfied with him or will you place a vote as you challenged?

Now, regarding Ghosty's questions for me, in the order that they have been posed:
1) Grill's decision to drop out does not really change my read of her that much, but if it does it makes her look slightly more town. I think the arguments for it changing the read in either direction are a bit of a wash. It is true that the inactivity could have been a result of lack of interest and taste for the game. But that is also manifestly against the reasons claimed in-thread, which were related to lurking and trying to learn the game.
2)To clarify my read of KSS, I am currently reading him as slightly more likely to be town than scum. As he has stated recently, there isn't really a way to translate his new behavior into a heavy read one way or the other (or moreover is that it can be translated into a heavy read in either direction). He could be changing his behavior because he is trying to be a better player and help the town. Or he could be changing his behavior because he is scum and trying to be under the radar. I tend to favor the town explanation, and I approve of the behavior switch either way. But I await more information before I will consider my read of him to have any solidity of which to speak.
3) Now that Hugh Jorgan has made an "attempt" to defend himself, and then promptly abandoned any real attempt to do that, I will put my vote down on him.

Vote to Lynch: Hugh Jorgan

The deadline is looming dangerously close, and I don't care much for our options right now. These two scenarios are far and away the most likely.

Scenario 1. With the deadline approaching and no viable alternatives present, we lynch Hugh_Jorgan.
I've already said what I want to say about why I think this would be a disaster.

Scenario 2. Similar to scenario 1. The deadline gets here, we have nobody other than Hugh to lynch. However, this time, we elect to no-lynch instead.
Green Machine said why this is awful earlier. To add some detail, Mafia games are balanced around the principle that the Night Phase, by and large, belongs to the Mafia. Meaning, no matter how powerful the town's roles are, extra Night Phases will benefit the Mafia for as long as their entire team remains alive. A dead Mafia power role or two throws the math off, but that's obviously not going to happen if we No Lynch. Also, from an out-of-game perspective, I am adamantly opposed to these games dragging on any longer than necessary, even if it was the objectively superior strategic option, which it most certainly is not.

Scenario 3. We lynch the Artist Formerly Known as Literal Grill. Though I'm currently the only one voting here, several other people have voiced concerns, so I think we can drum up enough support to make this happen. Also, that would save us from having to find a replacement, but that really isn't a tactical argument. That said, I don't like lynching people who can't defend themselves. (Controversial, I know.) I think Literal Grill's behavior was scummy enough to warrant a lynch, and my vote will remain here for now because of this, but I would still prefer to get a replacement and see how that person does before tightening the noose.

IMPORTANT STRATEGIC TALK HERE. READ THIS PART FFS.
I advocate a fourth scenario. If Hugh hasn't made any sort of defense of himself before Tuesday, we lynch him with no regrets. His continued silence may be perfectly excusable because of IRL obligations, but the timing is quite suspicious, and it certainly doesn't make him look better in my eyes. If he does make a halfway reasonable defense before Tuesday, I advocate lynching somebody who could defend themselves, but so far has not done so. Ralphie and THR have 1 post apiece, and although Sisco has multiples, they are utterly lacking in content.

As far as I'm concerned, if Ralphie, Sisco, or THR post before Tuesday, I'm removing them from lynch consideration, and I would encourage everybody else to do so. If none of the three have posted, my preference is for THR. Ralphie's sole post was extensive, and he was behaving like newbie town. He was asking questions and seeking to minimize the impact his newness has on the game, rather than using it as a shield. As for Sisco, I know he's a busy man, so I'm alright with letting him slide for now, although everybody should grill him hard on day 2. Furthermore, his posts were flippant and unfiltered, which to me is a soft town tell. I know nothing about THR other than the fact that he has played Mafia before, which makes his post seem absurd. Lurking accomplishes nothing, and more than enough has happened that he should have at least have some insight to the game at large by now. Any experienced player should know this, which means I can only assume he's trying to keep his head down and stay out of the limelight.

tl:dr We lynch Hugh if he doesn't defend himself. Otherwise, we lynch a lurker. Thoughts?

I would be in favor of lynching Literalgrill rather than Hugh, one less assured empty account that is a possible scum rather than the alternative, either way I'm not too happy with the result due to lack of communication but we play the game with the hand we're dealt I guess...

Things really slowed down here. We had no posts at all for nearly two full days. I'm not sure which is more to blame: The fact that it was the weekend and people have better ways to fill their free time than Mafia posts, or the fact that three players said they would post more later and then followed up with nothing. I encourage Hugh Jorgan, Otaku1889, and Nihil to follow through with their stated intention to post more of their thoughts.

Hans waited just slightly less time than me to say the obvious - the deadline is closing in. For those who don't remember:

Arc wrote:OFFICIAL DEADLINE: September 26th, 2017 at 11:59 p.m.

For those of you in a different time zone remember that Arc is in Central time and is likely using that.

Hans and I are in agreement that we should lynch somebody. We are also more or less in agreement about the top candidates for the noose. Hugh Jorgan is currently making it easy for us to want to be rid of him. LiteralGrill was looking rather scummy before she dropped; I share Hans's disdain for lynching someone who can't defend themselves, and not having to find a replacement is a fringe benefit (not a good strategy decision), but that doesn't change that she was looking like scum. I do agree wholeheartedly with the idea of lynching a lurker; lurking only serves to benefit the scum team. Hans has a different perspective on THR than I do, and if THR is in fact experienced at Mafia then my read of him changes substantially.

In short I think my vote will go towards anyone who doesn't put up a real attempt at a defense by the end of tomorrow. If multiple people fall into that category then I will prioritize in this order:
1. Hugh Jorgan
2. LiteralGrill('s replacement)
3. THR
4. Sisco
5. ralphie27

If everyone puts up a real defense then of course I will have to decide based on what everyone has to say. Perhaps a person not even on this list will suddenly appear to be the scummiest. But we need to decide on somebody, which means we need at least eight people to agree with each other within the next two days.

DEADLINE SUSPENDED: Current holdover 36 hours

We have a bit of a problem with the game, Sisco is dropping due to a problem at work, and that problem could bring about more dropouts, but I haven't heard word on that either way.

Neverless, being down two people with no potential replacements in sight causes some problems, and might be enough to kill the game, so I'm going to give the town some options.

1. I modkill the two players that dropped, ending day phase immediately, and let night phase happen as normal.

2. I modkill the two players that dropped, letting day phase continue as normal, probably with an extension of some variety, and we let the game continue with whatever results from this.

3. You guys rally together and find us replacements(I don't think this is going to happen, I"m tapped out of people, and I'm pretty sure most of you are as well.) If this is the choice, I'm only gonna give two days for this option to go through.

4. We end this game, and start another sign up thread to see how many of the players still here would be willing to play another game, and we start a less complicated game with whoever is left.

I'll leave this to the decision of the town.

KSS what about the for the greater good mentality is wrong? That should be the point of the game. We are playing a cooperative game where we don't know who we are competing with and who we are cooperating with but unless there are some very specific roles here we all have the same goal. So I defiantly believe in the greater good philosophy being viable nay the only philosophy that actual town members have.

Nihil as I was saying I put you neutral but was saying that your ability could be a good thing for the town or a bad thing for the town if you are scum. So the answer to your question is yes and no.

As for the development with the players option 2 does not seem viable at all IMO 3 is the most ideal and I will do my best to attempt to get at least 1 replacement but I'm not sure if it will work at all. Honestly I think I would be in favor of 1 over 4 just because I have already invested into the game and I know others who have invested more. I would not like to ruin people's game in the name of those 2 or more dropping. Even if it means that the game isn't as much fun as it would have been before it's still more fun than ending the game then and there IMO. That's my thoughts on it.

I'm in favor of continuing this game. Replacements would be best, but as Arc said that is not likely to happen. So on the idea of modkilling the two missing players, it really depends on what their alignments were. It is really hard to keep the game balanced when we're sort of soft-reseting a game designed for a different number of players. If the two were both scum then this idea is pretty much impossible whether we go into day or night from here; maybe something weird could happen like the mafia getting to recruit another member from the town, but I don't particularly like that suggestion. If they were both town then that is similar to having lynched a town on day one and then the mafia killing someone at night, with the caveat that the mafia was unlikely to kill either of the two who are dropping based on discussion, so in that scenario we probably should continue with an extended - but shorter than fully ten days - day phase. If there are one of each, then that is equivalent to having lynched a scum day one and then the mafia killing a town, but with the same caveat as before; since this is better than the town could have gotten otherwise in this scenario I suggest we go straight to night phase.

@like9Orphans I was intending for the game to be on hold until this decision was made. I apologize for not making this clearer.

I'd be up for option one, provided that the mafia team gets at least one replacement (probably chosen randomly from the vanilla townies, or just from the town as a whole) should both of the people leaving turn out to be scum. It wouldn't sit well with me having the scum team lose two members to IRL complications.

Of course, even though we've already spent several days on this game, a hard reboot might be the easiest thing to do...

Top 2 Town:
1. Green Machine- I had my doubts that he was town at first, but the fact he defended me, sensing that i'm a slow newbie, despite my nonposting making me a convenient target to whittle down the town, puts my faith in him.
2. TBH, I don't trust enough people in this game to definitively say someone is number 2.
Top 2 Scum:
1. Hans Gruber: I like how you opened up the conversation, but the way you lead the conversation, while generally withholding accusations (except towards ghosty) gives me the sense that you're leading us to the slaughter while earning our trust.
2. Hugh Jordan: Rereading everything, the way that Hugh started off lynching people and throwing accusations around based on random things like anime profile pics, and also his lack of defending himself, makes me think he's scum.
3. Nihil and KevinSpacey both voting no one (I know I did it too, but I'm a newb and now realize the mistake), seems fishy to me, especially since it seems to make mathematical sense that a no lynch on the first day only benefits the mafia, since they kill someone and we still get no additional information to base our lynching off of in day 2.

As to why I decided to break my silence. A: I was working a lot of hours this past week. B: People thought I wasn't even playing the game, and I wanted to dispel that.

With my earlier statement about how not lynching only truly benefits the mafia,
I vote to lynch: Hugh Jordan.

To hans, since i didn't see his last post:
I've played mafia before, but they were short games with not as much talking and discussion, so I was unprepared for the pace of this game lol

A couple people have come to me in private and said that they would be in favor of restarting the game, since no matter how the alignment falls on the two people, it kinda ruins the balance of the game. If its two town, it'd taint any scum victory by throwing in the caveat of, "But you guys had two townies dead without doing anything", and if it was two scum the game would be nearly impossible for the scum to win. and Otaku's suggestion of moving the teams around a bit would just make day one almost completely moot. And with 1 of each, that isn't necessarily as fair of a trade as you could expect. and with none of that even taking into account what the chance of one of the people dropping being a power role for either side. its just a mess.

I'm just giving you guys options, so I'll close the voting on this matter tomorrow at 6:00 CDT, and whatever has the bigger following will go through, so be sure to say what you'd like to happen.

I'm throwing my vote in for scraping this game, as unfortunate as it would be to let all the time and effort devoted by everyone in the game so far just run down the drain. It would be better in my mind to start a new game that doesn't have this shadow hanging over it.

Fuck it, hard reset

It is sad that we seem to have to but I am going with the crowd thus far and changing my vote to a hard reset.

I understand the logic of completely restarting the game. I wish it didn't have to be done, but I don't object.

I apologize for my absence just catching up with the thread. I have multiple things pop up over the weekend. I am in favor of whatever the majority chooses With this game.

To quote my Dad: "Sometimes it's cheaper to replace something than it is to repair it." So, fuck it, I vote for a hard reset.

Is It safe to call it Arc?

Dang, I liked this game! I kind of want to continue but I guess I'm outnumbered.